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IN THIS ISSUE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Virtual Currencies: Additional Information Could Improve Federal Agency Efforts to Counter Human and Drug Trafficking

Federally Backed Human Trafficking Task Force Model Yields Progress, Opportunities for Continued Growth

Providing Another Chance: Resetting Recidivism Risk in Criminal Background Checks

A Research-Based Practice Guide to Reduce Youth Gun and Gang/Group Violence


EDUCATION

College Affordability Views and College Enrollment

Returns to Bachelor’s Degree Completion Among Stopouts

Lessons from Two Experimental Studies of Multiple Measures Assessment

Supporting College Students During the Pandemic


GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue: 2021 Quarter 3

Pipeline Safety: Operators of Natural Gas and Hazardous Liquid Gathering Lines Face Data Collection Challenges

Taxing Business Incomes: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances


HEALTH AND
HUMAN SERVICES

Mortality in the United States, 2020

Balancing at the Edge of the Cliff: Experiences and Calculations of Benefit Cliffs, Plateaus, and Trade-Offs

Disparities by Sex and Race and Ethnicity in Death Rates Due to Opioid Overdose Among Adults 55 Years or Older, 1999 to 2019

Anxiety and Depression During COVID-19: Are Adults in Households with Children Faring Worse?



January 21, 2022

Criminal_Justice
CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Virtual currencies are an emerging payment method for transactions, such as retail purchases. Virtual currency's anonymizing features can attract criminals' use to avoid detection when paying for illicit activities. Thus, policy makers, regulators, and law enforcement have identified virtual currency, human trafficking, and drug trafficking as priority areas of concern. The authors were asked to review the use of virtual currency to facilitate sex and drug trafficking. This report examines (1) the use of virtual currency for human and drug trafficking and the extent to which U.S. agencies collect data on these topics; and (2) the extent to which U.S. agencies have taken steps to counter human and drug trafficking facilitated by virtual currency and challenges these agencies face. The authors analyzed data, reviewed documentation, and interviewed relevant officials at selected federal agencies. Virtual currency is increasingly used illicitly to facilitate human and drug trafficking, according to the authors’ review of agency documentation and data and interviews with officials. However, in a sensitive version of this report, the authors found that data from selected federal agencies on virtual currency use for human and drug trafficking may not be consistently captured. Consequently, agencies may lack complete data when assessing or reporting on the illicit use of virtual currency in human and drug trafficking. Selected federal agencies have taken actions to counter the illicit use of virtual currency in human and drug trafficking but face challenges. For example, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Internal Revenue Service oversee virtual currency entities. FinCEN imposes requirements for operators of virtual currency kiosks that are used to exchange virtual currencies for cash and are found in various locations such as convenience stores.

Source: U.S. Government Accountability Office

A significant hurdle to progress, in many jurisdictions, is local authorities’ lack of recognition of trafficking crimes as such, for both sex and labor trafficking. As a result, those offenses are often not prosecuted under available trafficking statutes, denying survivors the full protection of the law. In the past two decades, federal reforms have spurred progress against trafficking, but hurdles remain. Innovative multi-disciplinary trafficking task forces, employing the Enhanced Collaborative Model (ECM) to Combat Human Trafficking, were launched with federal backing in 2010. This model was developed and implemented by the federal Office for Victims of Crime and Bureau of Justice Assistance. The state-based task forces have increased trafficking prosecutions and demonstrated the value of, and ongoing need for, collaboration between local and state law enforcement and victim service providers. This article summarizes the study on trafficking task forces employing the ECM model to combat Human Trafficking, with a focus on major findings and conclusions, and recommendations for policy and practice. The study reveals inconsistent progress across jurisdictions, with a continuation of concerning practices, such as the arrest of trafficking survivors, but also indicated the ECM model has helped task forces obtain resources needed to support their work.

Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs

Criminal background checks are regularly conducted in the United States to screen candidates for employment, volunteer, and housing opportunities. Individuals with past convictions are routinely subject to evaluations amid concerns that, because of their criminal history or concerns about recidivism risk, they pose a risk of creating avoidable costs. Current methods of assessing recidivism risk estimate risk at the time of a person’s last conviction. As a result, they do not fully reflect important information about the time since that conviction, during which the individual has lived in the community without a new conviction. Given that recidivism risk declines the longer a person lives in a community without a new conviction, risk assessments that omit this information may make people look riskier than they are. As a result, people may be denied opportunities for which they might otherwise be qualified. This report describes a principle for developing recidivism risk models that are anchored at the time of a criminal background check. The authors refer to this as the reset principle. Risk-prediction models that use this principle reset the assessment of risk to account for the amount of time a person spends in the community without a new conviction. Although the report focuses on employment background checks, the reset principle also can be applied in other settings, such as in the vetting of volunteers or potential renters.

Source: RAND Corporation

While extensive research exists, the field lacks a current and translational synthesis of what works to reduce youth group and gun violence. In response, the Urban Institute developed a research-based practice guide to inform local government, law enforcement, and community-violence-intervention stakeholders as they implement new antiviolence interventions and refine existing ones. To inform the development of the guide, the researchers conducted a comprehensive literature synthesis of research on violence reduction interventions and conducted a scan of interventions representing well-known antiviolence models and other innovative strategies. Drawing on the findings from the literature synthesis and scan of practice, the practice guide presents recommendations around nine practice areas related to building an infrastructure to support a multi-faceted antiviolence strategy and implementing effective violence reduction programs. The guide includes recommendations for building antiviolence infrastructure and building effective programs and interventions. Building antiviolence infrastructure includes formalizing government’s role in coordinating antiviolence work and collecting and sharing data to refine practices and assess effectiveness. Building effective programs and interventions includes assessing the problem to focus attention and resources and using suppression and enforcement precisely and sparingly.

Source: Urban Institute

Education
EDUCATION

In 2012, when most study students were in eleventh grade, they were asked whether they agreed with the following statement: “Even if you get accepted to college, your family cannot afford to send you.” Thirty-two percent agreed or strongly agreed. Students and parents often think college costs more than it does. These views may be associated with decisions to apply to college. Many factors are related to students’ enrollment in postsecondary education, including but not limited to family resources, educational expectations and plans for future careers. College affordability views are just one factor in whether students enroll. Three years after high school, 58% of students who thought their family could afford to send them to college (afforders) were enrolled in college. Only 38% of students who thought their family could not afford to send them to college (non-afforders) were enrolled. Eighty percent of afforders ever attended college, compared to 59% of non-afforders. The difference between afforders and non-afforders exists for students whose parents attended college and for students whose parents did not attend college.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics

The recent returns to bachelor’s degree completion for those with interrupted college enrollment (stopouts) is unknown. This information is especially important since re-enrollment programs are being sold as a win-win for both schools and students. This paper contributes to the literature by using the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 cohort with a fixed-effects difference-in-differences regression to estimate recent labor market benefits for stopouts. The authors find that re-enrolling and completing a bachelor’s degree leads to a significant increase in employment of 9.8% and a significant increase in real (2014) annual income of $5,392.

Source: Economics of Education Review

Prior research suggests that using only standardized placement test scores to determine which new college students should take developmental coursework is inadequate, as many students may be unnecessarily assigned to developmental courses. This report describes two experimental studies of multiple measures assessment (MMA), in which colleges use high school GPA, placement test scores, and other additional measures to assign incoming students to developmental or college-level courses in math and English. One study took place at seven City of New York community colleges; the other study was conducted at four Minnesota community colleges and one Wisconsin community college. Results from both studies indicate the student outcomes improve under multiple measures assessment as compared to status quo placement based on test scores alone. This brief describes findings from the studies and offers recommendations for institutions seeking to reform their assessment and placement practices, including using MMA to bump more students from developmental prerequisite courses to introductory college-level courses and developing an MMA system that places increased emphasis on high school transcripts.

Source: MDRC

Open-access colleges are an important pathway to economic mobility for millions of Americans. But graduation rates at these colleges are low—for example, only 36% of first-time, full-time freshmen at community colleges graduate within three years. Over the last two decades, the research organization MDRC and others have conducted research to build the evidence base about what works to help students stay in college and earn credentials. Using lessons from the existing body of research, MDRC designed and is evaluating the Scaling Up College Completion Efforts for Student Success (SUCCESS) program, a multifaceted student support program designed for financial sustainability. The SUCCESS program centers on coaching with active outreach, monthly financial incentives, full-time enrollment, and data-driven program management. This brief highlights the components of the original SUCCESS program model, how colleges adapted the model during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as some early implementation findings and preliminary impact findings for the first study cohort’s first semester, which occurred during the peak of the pandemic. Though findings indicate that the adapted form of the SUCCESS model used during the pandemic had no discernable effect on students’ academic progress, the results do not necessarily indicate that virtual coaching programs are not effective (for example, in a non-pandemic environment, results could be different) or that the SUCCESS model as originally designed is not effective.

Source: MDRC

Government Operations
GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

The third quarter of 2021 combined tax revenues for property, sales and gross receipts, and income taxes decreased 1.3% to $446.6 billion from $452.4 billion in the same quarter of 2020. Total state tax revenue decreased 1.6% to $301.9 billion in the third quarter of 2021, from $306.8 billion reported in the same quarter of 2020. Individual income tax, at $109.4 billion, was down 16.6% from $131.1 billion in the same quarter of 2020. General sales and gross receipts taxes, which accounted for $95.1 billion, increased 9.3% from $87.1 billion in the same quarter of 2020. At $21.7 billion, corporation net income tax collections decreased 0.1% from the $21.7 billion collected in the same quarter in 2020. In the third quarter of 2021, the majority of each states’ largest tax collection was either individual income tax or general sales and gross receipts tax. Four states (Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Ohio) collected over 8% of total tax collections via the motor fuels tax in the third quarter of 2021. Across all 50 states, motor fuels tax collections decreased 3.9% from last quarter, and increased 9.7% to 14.2 billion from the 12.9 billion collected in the third quarter of 2020.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), within the U.S. Department of Transportation, has historically not regulated most gathering lines; pipelines that carry gas or hazardous liquid from wells to other pipelines or facilities. However, factors such as increased extraction of natural gas and oil have increased the potential safety risks of these pipelines. To understand these risks better, PHMSA has taken steps in recent years to collect data, such as pipeline size and material type, from all gathering line operators. This report addresses (1) stakeholder views on challenges operators may face in collecting gathering line data; and (2) steps PHMSA is taking to make operators aware of recently amended data reporting requirements. The authors reviewed statutes and PHMSA final rules, annual reporting forms, and other relevant documents; analyzed data from annual reports filed in 2021 by historically unregulated hazardous liquid gathering line operators; and interviewed PHMSA officials and representatives from a range of industry stakeholders including five gathering line operators and 11 state and regional industry associations and 12 state regulatory agencies in the states with the greatest mileage of natural gas and hazardous liquid gathering lines. Industry stakeholders told the authors that the limited availability of gathering line data and the resources needed to collect additional data may make reporting challenging. Older gathering lines may have less data available due to incomplete records and changes in ownership over time. Collecting data would require significant time, labor, and money. Stakeholders also noted that smaller operators—such as those with few employees—are less likely to have the expertise and resources needed to maintain or collect data. PHMSA has taken, and is planning, actions to make operators aware of recently amended gathering line reporting requirements. For hazardous liquid operators, PHMSA held a public meeting and presented information during two meetings of a national pipeline organization. PHMSA then received 85 annual reports in 2021 from those operators, which was in line with the agency's expectations.

Source: U.S. Government Accountability Office

More than half of economic income generated by closely held businesses (businesses other than corporations) does not appear on tax returns and that ratio has declined significantly over the past 25 years. Tax data alone provides incomplete insights about business income taxation because the incomes reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) are already affected by tax rules, avoidance strategies, and non-compliance. The authors explore distributional analyses of business income taxation using the Survey of Consumer Finances, which has the comprehensive household-level income, wealth, and demographics needed to simulate tax filings and benchmark against published IRS data. Under conservative assumptions, the authors show that the part of economic income from closely held businesses that does not show up on tax forms is distributed disproportionately to the most affluent households.

Source: Brookings Institution

Health and Human Services
HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

This report presents final 2020 U.S. mortality data on deaths and death rates by demographic and medical characteristics. These data provide information on mortality patterns in U.S. residents by variables such as sex, age, race and Hispanic origin, and cause of death. Life expectancy estimates, age-adjusted death rates, age-specific death rates, 10 leading causes of death, and 10 leading causes of infant death were analyzed by comparing 2020 and 2019 final data. Life expectancy for the U.S. population in 2020 was 77.0 years, a decrease of 1.8 years from 2019. The age-adjusted death rate increased by 16.8% from 715.2 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2019 to 835.4 in 2020. Age-specific death rates increased from 2019 to 2020 for each age group 15 years and over. Nine of the 10 leading causes of death in 2020 remained the same as in 2019, although 5 causes switched rank; heart disease and cancer remained the top 2 leading causes, and COVID-19 became the third leading cause of death in 2020. Suicide dropped from the list of 10 leading causes in 2020. The infant mortality rate decreased 2.9% in 2020 from 2019 to a record low of 541.9 infant deaths per 100,000 live births.

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Public benefit programs have the potential to help stabilize families when their income drops and can provide support as parents enter or reenter the workforce. As a family’s earnings rise, though, those earnings increases are often offset by declines in public assistance benefits (commonly called benefit cliffs when the declines are sharp) and increases in taxes owed. Complex program rules can make it difficult for participants to know how the benefits interact with new employment income. And benefit reduction rates can compound when people participate in multiple programs. This report summarizes insights from qualitative interviews with 43 respondents who currently or recently received Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) about how they experience tradeoffs between benefits, taxes, and work. It also reports results from microsimulation modeling of how benefits and taxes respond when income changes. The report includes 2018 data from Colorado, Minnesota, and New York. The authors examined the effects for families with various starting incomes and earnings increases. Several findings are presented including that parents receiving TANF want to support themselves through employment and turn to benefits as a last resort. Yet many parents feel they have insufficient information for making choices about work effort and benefit participation. Very few understand how the tax system works. And the stakes of losing some benefits, such as housing and child care, feel very high. Parents offered several suggestions for clarifying the interactions among earnings, benefit programs, and taxes, and for improving their ability to support their families.

Source: Urban Institute

Rates of opioid overdose deaths are increasing for older adults. Less is known about these deaths compared with those of younger adults. The purpose of this study is to analyze rate variation among opioid overdose deaths in older adults by sex and by race and ethnicity over time. During the period 1999 to 2019, 79,893 U.S. residents 55 years or older died due to an opioid overdose. Among these individuals, 79.97% were aged 55 to 64 years, and 58.98% were men. Annual numbers of deaths increased over time from 518 in 1999 to 10,292 in 2019. Annual rates of opioid overdose deaths per 100,000 persons 55 years or older increased over time and ranged from 0.90 in 1999 to 10.70 in 2019. Substantial variation by sex and by race and ethnicity was found. In 2013, rates among non-Hispanic Black men began to diverge from those of other demographic subgroups. By 2019, the opioid overdose fatality rate among non-Hispanic Black men 55 years or older was 40.03 per 100,000 population, 4 times greater than the overall opioid overdose fatality rate of 10.70 per 100,000 for persons of the same age. In this longitudinal cross-sectional study of U.S. adults who died due to opioid overdose, the burden of opioid overdose deaths among older adults since 2013 was most concentrated among non-Hispanic Black men. Deaths among non-Hispanic Black men were disproportionality represented in the overall increase in the rate of opioid overdose deaths among older adults. Further research is needed to inform policy and practice.

Source: JAMA Network Open

U.S. adults have experienced a threefold increase in anxiety and depression symptomatology during COVID-19. Caregivers of children reported elevated parenting stress, food insecurity, and economic worries. Many struggled to manage childcare and home education. However, prior studies used non-representative samples and lacked comparison to non-caregivers. In this brief report, the authors hypothesized that adults in households with children would be more likely to screen positive for anxiety and depression. Because women report more mental health symptoms than men, females in households with children would be especially likely to screen positive for anxiety and depression. Results indicate that overall caregiving and gender appear to have differential associations with pandemic mental health. Contrary to hypotheses, adults in households with children did not experience heightened depression symptomatology. Child caretaking—beyond the effect of larger household size—may reduce depression symptomatology during pandemic social isolation. However, compared to males not living with children, males in households with children experienced slightly heightened anxiety symptomatology. Men have experienced greater increase in mental health symptoms during COVID-19 than women.

Source: Journal of General Internal Medicine


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