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February 25, 2022
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This report presents statistics from the U.S. Bureau of
Justice Statistic’s National Crime Victimization Survey
(NCVS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI)
Uniform Crime Reporting Program Summary Reporting System
(UCR SRS), both of which measure the magnitude, nature,
and impact of crime in the nation. The NCVS was
established in 1973 to complement the UCR SRS and measure
crimes not reported to police. The NCVS and UCR SRS have
different purposes, use different methods, and focus on
different aspects of crime. The information they produce
together provides a comprehensive understanding of crime
in the United States. This report presents NCVS and UCR
SRS statistical estimates as defined by each program. The
report finds that during the 10-year period from 2011 to
2020, the NCVS rate of violent crime declined from 22.6 to
16.4 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.
During the same 10-year period, the UCR SRS rate of
violent crime remained steady around 4.0 crimes per 1,000
persons. Additionally, from 2019 to 2020, the NCVS rate of
violent crime reported to police decreased from 8.6 to 6.6
per 1,000 persons age 12 or older (down 23%), while the
UCR SRS violent crime rate increased marginally from 3.8
per 1,000 persons in 2019 to 4.0 per 1,000 in 2020.
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Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
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The authors investigate what portion of the pool of
unemployed men in the United States have been arrested,
convicted, or incarcerated by age 35. Using the National
Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997, they estimate 64% of
unemployed men have been arrested, and 46% have been
convicted. Unexpectedly, these rates vary only slightly by
race and ethnicity. Further investigation of other
outcomes such as marriage, education, household net worth,
and earnings shows large differences between unemployed
men who have a criminal history record and those who do
not. One major implication of these findings is that
employment services should focus more on the special
challenges facing unemployed men with criminal history
records. A second implication is that statistical
discrimination against unemployed members of racial
minority groups, to avoid hiring those with criminal
histories, is both illegal and ineffective.
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Source: Science Advances
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gun violence is tightly
concentrated on a small number of very high risk young
Black male adults that share a common set of risk factors,
including: involvement in street crews/groups; significant
criminal justice history including prior or active
community supervision; often prior victimization; and a
connection to a recent shooting (within the past 12
months). Often shootings are precipitated by a petty
conflict over a young woman, a simple argument, or the now
ubiquitous social media slight. Exacerbating the social
media incited shootings are music videos that promote
certain neighborhoods or cliques that also “dis” other
crews or individuals, sparking a series of comments and
competing videos that escalate into shootings. All of this
is made possible and exacerbated by the wide availability
of firearms and the culture of resolving conflicts through
violence. This small number of very high risk individuals
are identifiable, their violence is predictable, and
therefore it is preventable. Based on the assessment of
data and the series of interviews conducted, the authors
estimate that within a year, there are at least 500
identifiable people who rise to this level of very high
risk, and likely no more than 200 at any one given time.
These individuals comprise approximately 60-70% of all gun
violence in the District. The authors recommend that the
District establish a clear citywide strategy that focuses
intentional, structured, and intensive intervention
efforts on those individuals identified as being at very
high risk of being involved in gun violence.
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Source: National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform
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The metaverse is here. Though there are various
definitions of metaverse, each speaks of a space that is a
combination of virtual and live—creating a third space
that is not that is not home or work. Soon it will be as
omnipresent as TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook (now Meta).
As technology advances to bring us new immersive and
imaginary worlds, the education of children and the
preparation of teachers must also advance to meet these
new opportunities. When education lags the digital leaps,
the technology rather than educators defines what counts
as educational opportunity. This is largely what happened
with the introduction of applications (apps) designed to
be used on smartphones and tablets meant for adults.
Today, as the metaverse infrastructure is still under
construction, researchers, educators, policymakers, and
digital designers have a chance to lead the way rather
than get caught in the undertow. To leverage the potential
of the metaverse as a 3D, global, interconnected,
immersive, and real-time online space, we need new ways to
connect the physical world with augmented and virtual
reality experiences. The metaverse of the future is likely
to fully support augmented and virtual reality, artificial
intelligence, and the connectivity to link all worlds.
Indeed, in its most democratic instantiation, anyone will
have the opportunity to create a space and be part of a
user-generated global community on an interoperable
multiplatform where they can share their games or goods
with the world. The 5G internet speed should allow this to
be a reality. This report offers a path for bringing best
educational practices into the metaverse. The authors
suggest a series of well-worn principles derived from the
science of how and what children learn to guide the design
of new educational technology. They also suggest ways in
which design in this new space can go astray. In the end,
the authors challenge those creating educational products
for the metaverse to partner with educators and scientists
to ensure that children experience real human social
interaction as they navigate virtual spaces, children’s
agency is supported as they explore these spaces, and
there is a real eye to diversity in the representation and
access to what is created.
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Source: Brookings Institute
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In response to disruptions to work, school, and home life
that all Americans have experienced during the COVID-19
pandemic, most federal student loans have been paused
until May 1, 2022, affecting roughly 24 million people.
Evidence of the effects of the pandemic on student loan
borrowers is still emerging. In this report, the authors
provide a descriptive look at the financial behavior of
student loan borrowers during the pandemic pause, relative
to nonborrowers. Specifically, they look at the likelihood
of obtaining a first mortgage or auto loan during this
time. The results suggest the need for a careful
evaluation of the effect of the pandemic student loan
pause, and other policies, on student loan borrowers’
finances, homebuying, and wealth. The authors find a
substantial increase in first-time homebuying among
student loan borrowers during the pause, relative to
nonborrowers. This increase persists even after
controlling for age, credit score, and zip code
characteristics. However, this effect is largely driven by
student loan borrowers who were in repayment just before
the pandemic. Borrowers who were in default before the
pandemic were substantially less likely than nonborrowers
to obtain a first mortgage during the pause, even after
including available controls. Policies during the pandemic
such as federal stimulus payments and expanded social
safety net benefits—in addition to the student loan
pause–may have stabilized, or improved, some borrowers’
financial standing. But all have faced the risk of
COVID-19 infection, the effects of isolation from others,
and disruption to employment and workplace environments.
These results suggest that borrowers who were struggling
with repayment before the pandemic may still need support
after the pause ends.
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Source: Urban Institute
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Following each national election, the U.S. Census Bureau
conducts the Current Population Survey’s November Voting
and Registration Supplement. The supplement is fielded
following both presidential elections when congressional
seats and the presidency are decided, and midterm
elections when congressional seats are the highest offices
decided. The Current Population Survey has surveyed
Americans eligible to vote in these elections since 1964,
and estimates derived from this survey are among the most
consistently reliable and publicly available estimates of
the characteristics of American voters. Held during a
global pandemic, the 2020 presidential election featured
record turnout and record use of non-traditional voting.
The November 2020 the Current Population Survey Voting and
Registration Supplement provides a detailed look at the
demographics of who voted, the methods voters used to
vote, and how these measures have changed over time. The
largest age group of voters was the one between ages
45–64, constituting just over one-third of all voters in
2020 (34.7%). This group shrank from 37.6% of voters in
2016 to its lowest share since 1996. The oldest age group,
those 65 or older, made up 25.7% of 2020 voters. This is
the largest voter share for those 65 and older on record
in the survey’s time series. The youngest age groups,
those 18–29 years old and those 30–44 years old, grew to
16.5% and 23.2%, respectively.
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Source: United States Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce
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The Financial Report of the U.S. Government provides a
comprehensive view of government finances, including
revenues, costs, assets, liabilities, long-term
sustainability, and the financial impact of the federal
COVID-19 response. The Government Accountability Office
(GAO) audits the financial statements in that report each
year, but they have not yet been able to determine if they
fairly present the government's finances. This year, it
continued to be primarily due to serious financial
management problems at the U.S. Defense Department and
Small Business Administration; unresolved differences in
balances between federal agencies; and weaknesses in the
process for preparing the statements. The comprehensive
long-term fiscal projections presented in the Statement of
Long-Term Fiscal Projections and related information show
that based on current revenue and spending policies, the
federal government continues to face an unsustainable
long-term fiscal path. Since 2017, GAO has stated that a
fiscal plan is needed to ensure that the U.S. remains in a
strong economic position to meet its social and security
needs, as well as to preserve flexibility to address
unforeseen events like public health emergencies. Congress
and the administration have responded in an unprecedented
manner to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting severe
economic repercussions. Once the pandemic recedes and as
the economy continues to recover, Congress and the
administration should quickly pivot to developing a plan
to place the federal government on a sustainable long-term
fiscal path. Further, GAO has recommended that Congress
consider alternative approaches to the current debt limit
as part of any long-term fiscal plan.
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Source: U.S. Government Accountability Office
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Social equity has become a key concern among public
agencies. In 2020, the California Public Utilities
Commission adopted D. 20-08-046, Decision on Energy
Utility Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments and
Climate Adaptation in Disadvantaged Communities. This
ruling requires utilities to engage disadvantaged
communities and assess their vulnerability to climate
impacts. It also requires utilities to evaluate how their
climate adaptation efforts can promote equity. Equity is a
sense of fairness and speaks to differences in experiences
and outcomes among disparate groups. Energy equity is the
sense of fairness applied to the power sector. In the
context of this work on distributional equity, equity
metrics measure how costs and benefits of a system or
intervention accrue to different groups. Southern
California Edison, the sponsor of this work, is one of
several investor-owned utilities regulated by the
California Public Utilities Commission that must adhere to
this rulemaking. The authors developed an illustrative set
of context-specific equity metrics that Southern
California Edison could build on and incorporate into its
ongoing work toward climate adaptation. These metrics can
help inform utility regulators and electricity utilities
as they begin grappling with energy equity. It offers a
straightforward methodology and a starting set of equity
metrics that are intended to be adapted to different
contexts. The following equity metrics are a useful
starting point for assessing equity in its projects:
investment, employment, participation, electricity burden,
implementation cost share, System Average Interruption
Duration Index, System Average Interruption Frequency
Index, account attrition because of non-payment,
hospitalization rates, weighted value of lost load for
businesses and households, and community benefit.
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Source: RAND Corporation
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Racial wealth inequality has been pervasive in the United
States from the earliest days of colonization 400 years
ago. Despite constitutional guarantees of equality and
numerous anti-discrimination laws, racial wealth gaps not
only remain but some are growing. Scholars, policymakers,
and others have deeply investigated the historical roots
and current drivers of racial wealth inequality in the
United States. Most analyses focus on total asset
holdings, intergenerational transfers, or disparities in
specific assets (such as home equity). Media coverage and
social narratives about racial wealth gaps similarly tend
to concentrate on assets. Less attention has been paid to
the other side of the household balance sheet: debt.
Although there has been analysis of racial disparities in
mortgages, and recent research has illuminated the role of
student loans in widening the wealth gap between Black and
White households, debt remains underappreciated as a
driver of racial wealth gaps. This report explores the
links between racial disparities in debt and those in
wealth. It reflects findings from a literature review,
interviews with experts from the academic and private
sectors, analysis of federal survey data, and focus groups
and consumer surveys. The authors believe that fully
understanding the impact of debt on people’s lives
requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes
systematically seeking input from and listening to people
who struggle financially. This report provides a resource
for leaders across sectors to understand more deeply the
interactions between racial disparities in debt and racial
gaps in wealth and the ways in which redressing the racial
wealth gap requires addressing racial debt disparities.
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Source: Aspen Institute
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This report presents national estimates of different types
of health insurance coverage and lack of coverage
(uninsured). Estimates are presented by selected
sociodemographic characteristics, including age, sex, race
and Hispanic origin, family income, education level,
employment status, and marital status. In 2020, 31.6
million (9.7%) people of all ages were uninsured at the
time of the interview. This includes 31.2 million (11.5%)
people under age 65. Among children, 3.7 million (5.0%)
were uninsured, and among working-age adults (aged 18–64),
27.5 million (13.9%) were uninsured. Among people under
age 65, 64.3% were covered by private health insurance,
including 56.6% with employment-based coverage and 6.7%
with directly purchased coverage. Moreover, 4.0% were
covered by exchange-based coverage, a type of directly
purchased coverage. Among people under age 65, about two
in five children and one in five adults were covered by
public health coverage, mainly by Medicaid and the
Children’s Health Insurance Program. Among adults aged 65
and over, the percentage who were covered by private
health insurance (with or without Medicare), Medicare
Advantage, and traditional Medicare only varied by age,
family income level, education level, and race and
Hispanic origin.
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Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services
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Gender-based disparities in compensation in academic
medicine are recognized, but their estimated impacts on
early career earning potential and strategies to mitigate
them have not been well studied. The purpose of this study
is to compare earning potential between female and male
academic physicians in the first 10 years of post-training
employment and to evaluate the estimated impact of
promotion timing, starting salary, and salary growth rate
on earning potential. Using publicly available mean debt
and compensation data for full-time employed academic
physicians in the U.S. from 2019 to 2020, starting salary,
salary in year 10 of employment, annual salary growth
rate, and overall earning potential in the first 10 years
of employment were estimated for each gender by
subspecialty. This cross-sectional study included
compensation data from 24,593 female and 29,886 male
academic physicians across 45 subspecialties. Women had
lower starting salaries in 42 of 45 subspecialties (93%),
year-10 salaries in 43 of 45 subspecialties (96%), mean
annual salary growth rates in 22 of 45 subspecialties
(49%), and earning potential in 43 of 45 subspecialties
(96%). A 1-year delay in promotion from assistant to
associate professor reduced women’s earning potential by a
median of $26,042 ($19,672-$35,671), but failure to be
promoted at all reduced it by a median of $218,724
($176,317-$284,466). Equalizing starting salaries could
increase women’s earning potential by a median of $250 075
($161,299-$381,799) in the subspecialties for which
starting salaries for women were lower than those for men.
Equalizing annual salary growth rates could increase
women’s earning potential by a median (IQR) of $53,661
($24,258-$102,892) in the subspecialties for which mean
annual salary growth rates were lower for women than for
men. The findings of this study suggest that gender-based
disparities in starting salary and early career earning
potential are pervasive in academic medicine in the U.S.
Equalizing starting salaries would address the majority of
the differences in earning potential.
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Source: JAMA Network Open
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While a growing body of evidence documents large gender
disparities in health care and related social insurance
programs, little is known about what drives these
disparities. The authors leverage administrative data and
random assignment of doctors to patients inherent within
the workers’ compensation insurance claim dispute
resolution process to study the impact of gender match
between doctors and patients on medical evaluations and
subsequent social insurance benefits received. Compared to
differences among their male patient counterparts, female
patients randomly assigned a female doctor rather than a
male doctor are 5% more likely to be evaluated as disabled
and receive 8.5% more subsequent cash benefits on average.
There is no analogous gender-match effect for male
patients. The magnitude of these effects implies that
having female doctors evaluate patients entirely offsets
the observed gender gap in the likelihood of being
evaluated as disabled when male doctors evaluate patients.
The authors explore mechanisms through further analysis of
the administrative data and complementary survey evidence.
In addition, the authors present broader evidence on
gender gaps in workers' compensation insurance and gender
homophily in patients' selections of doctors in settings
where patients have choice. Combining this evidence, the
authors conduct policy counterfactuals illustrating how
policies increasing gender diversity among doctors or
increasing gender homophily in patient-doctor matches may
impact gender gaps in evaluated disability. The findings
indicate that policies increasing the share of female
patients evaluated by female doctors may substantially
shrink gender gaps in medical evaluations and associated
outcomes.
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Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
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Graduate Student Position.
OPPAGA is an ideal setting for gaining hands-on experience in policy analysis
and working on a wide range of issues of interest to the Florida Legislature.
OPPAGA provides an opportunity to work in a legislative policy research offices
with a highly qualified, multidisciplinary staff that includes public administrators,
social scientists, accountants, MBA graduates, and others.
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Florida, the Legislature's website that includes continually updated information on the state's operating budget and daily expenditures by state agencies.
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PolicyNotes, published every Friday, features reports, articles, and websites with timely information of interest to policymakers and researchers. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations
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