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IN THIS ISSUE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Defense Use of Digital Discovery in Criminal Cases: A Quantitative Analysis

Michigan Local Governments Report Increased Challenges with Law Enforcement Recruitment and Retention


EDUCATION

Infusing Advanced Manufacturing into Undergraduate Engineering Education

Knocking at the College Door

How States are Driving the Expansion of Apprenticeships: State Apprenticeship Policy Scan


GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

Supporting Work and Simplifying the Rules in the Housing Voucher Program

Final Report on Program Effects and Lessons from the Family Self-Sufficiency Program Evaluation

Low-Income Workers Experience—By Far—The Most Earnings and Work Hours Instability


HEALTH AND
HUMAN SERVICES

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Confirms First Severe Case of H5N1 Bird Flu in the United States

Development and Validation of a Tool to Predict Onset of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer Dementia



January 17, 2025

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Over the last two decades, states across the country have moved toward earlier and broader discovery in criminal cases. As part of this trend, the Texas Legislature in 2013 mandated open-file discovery in criminal cases, requiring prosecutors to disclose to the defense virtually all evidence relevant to the case. For these discovery reforms to fulfill their aims of improved fairness and efficiency, defense attorneys must take advantage of the evidence disclosed by the prosecution. Prior studies suggest, however, that a range of factors, including low pay and high caseloads, impede effective defense representation in general. If similar factors hinder defense attorneys from reviewing discovery, discovery reforms would fail to meet their goals, and defendants would receive sub-standard representation. The recent adoption of digital evidence platforms by local jurisdictions allows us to study whether defense attorneys consistently fulfill their duty to review discovery. Analyzing data from digital evidence platforms used in felony cases in four Texas counties between 2018 and 2020, the research team examined whether and when defense attorneys fail to access evidence disclosed by the prosecution. The research team found that a substantial number of defense attorneys never access the discovery. The access rate varies by county, offense seriousness, attorney category, attorney experience, and file type. Drawing on review of prior scholarship and Bayesian analysis of the data, the research team discusses plausible interpretations of these variations. Analysis of the data suggests that attorneys are more likely to neglect their duties to access discovery in cases featuring less serious offenses. Low pay for appointed counsel in flat-fee jurisdictions, high caseloads for public defenders, and a deluge of (often repetitive) digital discovery also appear to limit attorneys’ capacity to review evidence. Contrary to expectations, more experienced attorneys were less likely to access discovery. Some of these problems appear to become less serious over time. As digital evidence platforms become more common, researchers could expand the number of jurisdictions to study. Future research would especially benefit from studying vouchers documenting individual payments to defense attorneys within counties that rely on both flat-rate and hourly payments.

Source: Southern Methodist University

This report presents the views of Michigan’s local government leaders, county sheriffs, local chiefs of police, and county prosecutors regarding recruitment and retention of law enforcement personnel, including police officers, sheriffs’ deputies, and assistant prosecutors. These findings are based on statewide surveys of local government leaders in the spring 2024 Michigan Public Policy Survey (MPPS), with some comparison to data collected on the fall 2015 MPPS. In 2024, nearly three-quarters (72%) of Michigan local governments that provide or contract for law enforcement services report that the primary law enforcement agency serving their jurisdiction has problems with recruiting qualified law enforcement personnel, including 39% that say they have significant problems. Meanwhile, 48% report problems with retaining current officers. This represents an enormous increase since 2015, when fewer than a quarter (22%) of local government leaders reported problems with law enforcement recruitment and/or retention. These recruitment and retention problems are more widespread in larger jurisdictions, but even in the smallest jurisdictions that have or contract for police services, a majority report problems with recruitment. A parallel survey of county sheriffs and local chiefs of police raises further concern, with more than 80% reporting problems with deputy or police officer recruitment. In addition, 70% of Michigan sheriffs say retention is a problem for their office. A majority of local government leaders, county sheriffs, and local chiefs of police say that increasing pay rates and benefits, along with non-traditional incentives such as paid time off or flexible schedules, would help with recruiting additional personnel and/or retaining current personnel, if they had the resources to provide them.

Source: The Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy

EDUCATION

Cutting-edge technologies are reshaping manufacturing in the United States and around the world, with applications from medicine to defense. If the United States wants to further build upon these new innovations, the next generation of engineers must be trained to work in advanced manufacturing from the undergraduate level and beyond. This report examines advanced manufacturing techniques for the defense industry and explores how undergraduate engineering programs can better develop advanced manufacturing capabilities in the workforce. This report also discusses how the industry can contribute to engineering programs and the role that the government can play by including undergraduate engineering students in their manufacturing initiatives. Further, this report provides specific guidance on ways to incorporate experiential learning emphasizing advanced manufacturing and strengthen ties between academia, industry, and government through mentoring and internship programs. Key recommendations include professional engineering advocating for accreditation board for engineering and technology criteria to explicitly include manufacturing or realization, strengthening collaboration between academia and the industry, and engaging undergraduates in applied research to obtain hands-on experience with advanced manufacturing.

Source: National Academies Press

The total number of high school graduates is expected to peak in 2025 and then decline steadily through 2041. Compared to 2023, 38 states will see declines in the number of graduates by 2041 as most regions in the U.S. continue to shrink. The South, home to the largest student numbers in the country, is projected to see slight growth in the number of graduates through the coming year. The total number of projected graduates in 2041 is just under 1.5 million, representing an increase of between 2% to 3% compared to 2023. Just under half of the states in the South are projected to see an increase in the number of graduates, led by the District of Columbia, with a nation-leading projected growth of 31%. Tennessee (15%), South Carolina (14%), Florida (12%), and Delaware (8%) are also projected to exhibit robust growth. West Virginia, with a 26% decline, and Mississippi, with a 16% decline, are projected to have the biggest drops by 2041.The proportion of future public high school graduating classes who come from underrepresented racial and ethnic backgrounds — particularly Hispanic and multiracial graduates — will continue to increase. COVID-19’s impact on the education pipeline is modest, but will be felt for years to come as learning loss will continue to be a challenge. Potential solutions and strategies may address the upcoming declines and ensure college enrollments that help meet future workforce needs. Those include additional investments to make college more affordable, making financial aid more transparent and less confusing, introducing better academic and wraparound supports for postsecondary learners, and establishing more powerful pathways to and from work and learning.

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

In the last decade, apprenticeships have grown by over 60%. The number of active registered apprentices have grown from 410,000 in 2011 to 667,000 in 2024. Annually, the number of new apprentices has increased at an average rate of 8% a year over the last ten years. States with set targets for apprenticeship growth have seen rapid progress; most states allocated some grant funding to incentivize sponsors to establish or expand apprenticeships; and many states, such as New York and Rhode Island, are making progress on working with employers and reducing the bureaucratic friction in starting apprenticeship programs; they increased by tenfold between 2014 and 2023. Florida nearly doubled its new apprentices in this same time period. Despite these promising signs, it is worth noting that even top-performing states are still under 1%, while in England, Germany, and France the figure is between 2-3%. There is still significant room for growth across the board. While construction is still the dominant industry for apprentices, most states have improved their occupational diversity over the last decade.

Source: Apprenticeships for America

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

The Rent Reform Demonstration, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), sought to test an alternative rent policy for families living in privately owned housing units and receiving tenant-based Housing Choice Vouchers (HCVs), which are portable subsidies that are not restricted to any particular rental buildings or apartment units. This report is the fifth and final report on a comprehensive evaluation of that policy. More than 6,600 families at four PHAs located in Lexington, Kentucky, Louisville, Kentucky, San Antonio, TX, and Washington, D.C., participated in the demonstration. As families were enrolled in the study, they were randomly assigned either to a group subject to a new rent policy or to a control group that continued with the existing rent policy. Under the existing rent calculations, most households (excluding older adults and people with disabilities) are required to report their income to the public housing agencies at least annually, with increases in income translating to the household paying a higher share of the rent. The new rent policy calculated rents based on families’ prior-year income rather than anticipated income; eliminated deductions from income; slightly lowered the percentage of income that would be paid toward rent; introduced or increased the minimum dollar amount families were required to pay toward their rent and utilities; and, most notably, did not require families to report increases in income for three years, compared with annually under regular rent rules. The final evaluation of the demonstration showed that the new rent model did not cause tenants to increase their earnings or employment after six years. However, voucher families and public housing agency staff members preferred the alternative rent model, and public housing agencies reported a reduction in administrative burden. Many families interviewed said the new rent policy reduced stress and gave them a little more money each month. For public housing agencies, the new rent policy reduced certain time-consuming administrative activities, including regular recertifications and the need for frequent actions related to interim changes in families’ income. Families who were assigned to the new rent policy also remained on housing assistance somewhat longer than families who were not; however, the new policy did not increase program costs over the long term. Other studies have documented the positive benefits of receiving housing assistance (including extra years of assistance) on housing stability and other positive outcomes for households with extremely low incomes.

Source: MDRC

Policymakers have long sought to improve the labor market outcomes and address the barriers to work faced by households with low income. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Family Self-Sufficiency (FSS) program blends housing assistance with supportive services and a financial incentive to help improve the economic well-being of households receiving federal rental assistance. Eighteen housing agencies in seven states agreed to participate in this evaluation and enrolled 2,656 voucher recipients in the study between October 2013 and December 2014. The evaluation focuses on the 2,556 study participants who were 18 to 61 years of age at study enrollment. Taking a long-term perspective, this final report builds on prior reports and looks at the cumulative evidence of the program’s impacts or effectiveness. This final report spans the entire evaluation period, covering the period from 2012, when the study was launched, to 2021, which includes the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic that hit the nation beginning in March 2020. All the FSS programs in this study and their housing agencies made dramatic changes in how they delivered services during the pandemic, shifting to online engagement with program participants. A brief survey, fielded in 2021, provides additional insights into the longer-term outcomes and post-exit circumstances of former FSS participants and how they fared in the face of the pandemic’s economic shocks. The end of the evaluation also coincides with the release of the FSS Final Rule, which implements the FSS program’s reauthorization. The FSS Final Rule went into effect June 17, 2022, well after the follow-up period for this study had ended. Some of the requirements families in the evaluation were subject to no longer apply (or changed) with the implementation of the new legislation.

Source: MDRC

To assess the compensation of workers, it matters not only how much money they earn, but also the manner in which their pay is earned. That is to say, to earn $25,000, one worker may have reliable and consistent earnings and hours from a single employer, while another may have multiple employers, inconsistent work hours, and variable wages. While workers may desire some amount of flexibility in their work schedule and earnings, volatility itself can also be troublesome. In this report, the authors document how volatile earnings and work hours are month-over-month for workers, and how this varies by workers’ income. Key takeaways are that (1) instability is a defining characteristic of low-income workers’ earnings and hours and (2) earnings and hours volatility for low-income workers are not due to their preferences but rather reflect the nature of the low-wage labor market. The authors explore the financial consequences of volatility and several potential causes of volatility—whether the volatility is the worker’s own choice or driven by factors beyond the worker’s control, such as employers setting unpredictable work schedules. The authors document that instability is a defining characteristic of low-income workers’ earnings and hours. This is true regardless of whether the low-income worker is the only earner in the household, lives in a household with other earners, or is the primary or secondary earner. Further, the current amount of earnings and hours volatility for low-income workers is not simply a reflection of preferences for more irregular work, but rather a reflection of the nature of the labor market they work in. Furthermore, compared to high-income workers with volatile income, low-income workers with volatile income are 3.5 times more likely to report their volatile income leads to trouble paying their bills, 1.4 times more likely to report their employer requires they work an irregular schedule, and nearly twice as likely to want to work more hours.

Source: Brookings Institute

HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

A patient has been hospitalized with a severe case of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus ("H5N1 bird flu") infection in Louisiana. This marks the first instance of severe illness linked to the virus in the United States. The case was confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday, December 13, 2024. Since April 2024, there have been a total of 61 reported human cases of H5 bird flu reported in the United States. Partial viral genome data of the H5N1 avian influenza virus that infected the patient in Louisiana indicates that the virus belongs to the D1.1 genotype related to other D1.1 viruses recently detected in wild birds and poultry in the United States and in recent human cases in British Columbia, Canada, and Washington state. This H5N1 bird flu genotype is different than the B3.13 genotype detected in dairy cows, sporadic human cases in multiple states, and some poultry outbreaks in the United States. Additional genomic sequencing and efforts to isolate virus from clinical specimens from the patient in Louisiana are underway at CDC.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

In this prognostic study that used data from 3,787 patients, researchers developed and validated the Florey Dementia Index (FDI) for predicting the onset of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer dementia (AD). The FDI uses age and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) score for prediction. Although the use of advanced imaging, biomarkers, and multiple neuropsychological testing data in models could enhance prediction accuracy, such data are often costly to collect and not easily accessible. This is an important consideration for health equity, as diagnostic resources are limited in lower-income countries. this tool design strikes a balance between the requirement on clinical and diagnostic resources and predictive performance. The FDI relies solely on data collected using non-invasive methods, making the model potentially more applicable and accessible within a broader community while maintaining good predictive performance. A simulated trial of the model yielded consistently strong results and highlighted the potential clinical application of the FDI model. This study found that the FDI can accurately predict the age at onset of MCI and AD, which can help older adults and clinicians develop a dementia care plan. At the final evaluation, 676 participants (33.3%) were cognitively unimpaired, 656 (32.3%) had MCI, and 697 (34.4%) had AD. The predicted mean (SD) age at onset of MCI or AD was 76.3 (7.0) years and 76.7 (6.5) years, respectively. These predicted ages at onset were well aligned with those observed clinically (75.7 [6.7]) years for MCI and 76.8 [6.5] years for AD). The model was evaluated using an independent, well-characterized, longitudinal Alzheimer disease cohort, the participants of which are of a wider range of ethnicities, educational backgrounds, and socioeconomic statuses. The promising results achieved in the present study support the potential clinical use of the FDI model so that timely diagnostics, treatment, and care plans for individuals at risk can be arranged.

Source: JAMA Network


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