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IN THIS ISSUE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Human Trafficking Prevalence Estimation Feasibility Study

Trends and Characteristics of Youth in Residential Placement, 2023

Evaluation of Swab Materials in Forensic DNA Testing: A Systematic Review


EDUCATION

Falling Behind: How Skills Shortages Threaten Future Jobs

The Opportunity Makers: How a Diverse Group of Public Schools Helps Students Catch Up—and How Far More Can

Comparative Cost Analyses of Community College Student Success Initiatives


GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

How Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Other Technology Impacted Businesses and Workers

Highlights of a Forum: Expert Views on the Federal Statistical System

Nearly Eight Million United States Children Live in Families That Struggle to Afford Enough Diapers


HEALTH AND
HUMAN SERVICES

Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Adults: United States, August 2021–August 2023

Overdose Prevention and Response Toolkit

Caregiving in the United States, 2025



September 26, 2025

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

This report presents an environmental scan of international and domestic studies that estimate the size of the human trafficking victim population in the United States, examining the results and assessing the strengths and limitations of each methodology. This report also summarizes panel discussions by subject-matter experts, the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) and National Institute of Justice representatives, and Abt Global team members that considered trafficking type, geography, methodology, and data access and quality. Based on findings from the environmental scan and panel discussions, the team recommends a pilot study to test the feasibility of estimating the prevalence of human trafficking in the United States. Researchers found that random sampling is the optimal method because of its ability to produce unbiased estimates in theory and practice, account for individuals with limited or no social network, and account for individuals who are not visible in public places or by providers. Other strong methodologies include multiple system estimation and link tracing. In 2024, a panel of subject matter experts met to discuss human trafficking estimation. The panel found that repeating estimates over time is an important value-add that BJS is uniquely suited to provide, BJS should identify the population that it wants the estimate to be generalizable to prior to selecting a methodology for prevalence estimation, and there is a better chance of success if BJS focuses on metropolitan statistical areas because this geographic scale bridges the gap between national and local levels.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics

This data snapshot illustrates findings from the 2023 Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement. A youth may be committed by a judge (also known as adjudicated) to a residential program for the violation of a law. Researchers found that the number of youth in residential placement facilities increased from 24,900 in 2021 to 29,300 in 2023. Despite the recent increase, the number of youth in placement in 2023 was below pre-pandemic levels. The proportion of youth detained or committed for a person offense increased between 2013 and 2023; a larger proportion of youth were held in local facilities in 2023 (45%) compared with 1997 (28%); and within one month of admission in 2023, half of detained youth remained in placement; whereas half of committed youth remained in placement after 16 weeks of admission.

Source: U.S. Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention

Cotton swabs continue to be the primary choice for biological evidence collection, although swab composition technology has advanced, and other swab choices are available. This article describes the results of a systematic literature review and analysis to determine which swab types work best for collecting biological evidence. Researchers reviewed findings from 39 research studies to determine the best swab types based on the DNA’s source and the surface (substrate) it is on. Researchers identified five DNA sources: blood, saliva, semen, touched surfaces, and acellular DNA, and tested 17 different kinds of porous (e.g. brick, paper, skin, drywall, and textiles) and nonporous (e.g. glass, metal, plastic, stone, and ammunition) substrates. Researchers found that the overall workflow needs to be considered according to swab type. For example, the best swab type depends on the entire process, including extraction through DNA typing. Researchers also found that swabs made of the same material do not always perform similarly. Multiple studies evaluating multiple swabs of the same material sometimes saw a range in performance. Lastly, researchers found that swab users do not affect the results. Two studies found no significant differences in results among people who performed swabbing operations.

Source: National Institute of Justice

EDUCATION

The U.S. is facing a skills shortage brought on by an aging population approaching retirement and a shortfall in the number of young workers with the educational attainment needed to meet labor-market demands. From 2024 through 2032, 18.4 million experienced workers (ages 55–64) with postsecondary education are expected to retire, far outpacing the 13.8 million younger workers (currently ages 16–24) who will enter the labor market with equivalent postsecondary educational qualifications. Compounding the problem, the economy is expected to add 685,000 new jobs requiring at least some postsecondary education and training, further widening the gap between the demand for and the supply of qualified workers. In total, from 2024 through 2032, the U.S. economy will need 5.25 million more workers with education and training beyond high school, 4.5 million of whom will need at least a bachelor’s degree. Without massive and immediate increases in educational attainment, 171 occupations will face skills shortages through 2032. One potential solution to skills shortages is to invest in vocational and technical education programs that can train individuals for careers in blue-collar industries. By promoting these programs and raising awareness about available blue-collar opportunities, policymakers, employers, and educators can encourage more individuals to pursue careers in these fields. Additionally, policymakers can provide incentives for companies to hire and train blue-collar workers, such as tax breaks or subsidies for apprenticeship programs. These actions can help bridge the gap between supply and demand in the labor market and ensure a sustainable future for blue-collar workers.

Source: Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Workforce

In schools across the country, many students fall behind academically, and most who fall behind stay behind. Studies show that a strong academic foundation is one of the five factors of social and economic mobility. Without strong academic foundations, students will be less equipped to pursue chosen careers, achieve financial security, and thrive in life. This report evaluated 28,000 elementary and middle schools, where the average student was not yet on grade level. The report also discusses the trajectory-changing schools’ effectiveness in catching students up to grade level during their time in school. Researchers found that the top 5% of schools (trajectory-changing schools) helped students catch up by gaining more than 1.3 years of learning per academic year. These schools achieved this through a shared commitment to creating a culture of belonging, delivering consistent grade-level instruction, and building a coherent instructional program. Specifically, trajectory-changing schools systematically cultivate belonging and design support structures for each individual student. These schools build a full understanding of each young person—who they are both in and out of school—and work in teams to support their unique needs. In addition, trajectory-changing schools minimize variation among classrooms. All teachers meet a shared bar for quality content and instruction. All students work on grade-level content, with access to additional support for students in need. Lastly, trajectory-changing schools ensure that all components of schools’ instructional program— curriculum, materials, interventions, and assessments—work together to advance the same set of grade-level expectations.

Source: The New Teacher Project

Limited resources hinder completion and exacerbate inequality in community colleges. Existing research identifies strategies that raise outcomes but leaves policymakers and campus leaders wondering about implementation costs. This paper presents the first set of comparative cost analyses of community college success initiatives to date. This paper comprehensively documents annual costs associated with six common strategies: basic needs supports, college success and career exploration courses, early alert systems, embedded tutoring, retention- and emergency-based financial aid programs, and first-year experience programming. This paper found that costs associated with initiatives can vary widely from roughly $79,900 per year to over $2.9 million, and range from as little as $570 per student to more than $1,320. The annual number of students served also varies from roughly 140 to over 3,160 across initiatives. A majority of resources are provided by colleges for all but one initiative: the college success and career exploration course, where students bear a majority of costs (69%) through time, tuition, and fees. Three initiatives place a majority of resource costs on personnel: early alert, embedded tutoring, and first-year experience programming. Lastly, results suggest that larger programs are not necessarily more expensive or that higher-cost programs will necessarily serve more students, challenging the assumption that greater investment will automatically lead to broader reach or impact.

Source: Columbia University, Community College Research Center

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

The adoption of new technology like robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) had little impact on the number or skills of workers that businesses employ, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 Annual Business Survey. The survey canvasses employer businesses (those with at least one paid employee) on many aspects of business ownership including why and when they became owners, how they manage their finances and how technology impacts their workforce. About 78% of organizations reported using AI in 2024, up from 55% the year prior, according to Stanford’s 2025 AI Index. Recent analyses found that AI has had — at least so far — little impact on employment numbers. Some jobs, like financial examiner, are more exposed to AI than, say, a construction worker whose job can’t be easily simulated by an AI model. But research from the Economic Innovation Group shows that from 2022 to the beginning of 2025, the unemployment rate rose less for the most AI exposed workers (up 0.30 percentage points) than for the least AI-exposed workers (up 0.94 points). . Businesses used AI at a higher rate (68.0%) than other technologies from 2021 to 2022. But they adopted other surveyed technologies at a higher rate from 2016 to 2020: (1) Cloud-based (40.0%); (2) Specialized software (27.0%); and (3) Specialized equipment (23.6%). Adoption of robotics technology remained relatively steady, ranging from 23.6% to 26.9% between 2016 and 2022 (with no significant difference between these shares). Most businesses reported cloud-based technology (59.0%), specialized software (58.9%), and specialized equipment (57.4%) were “very important” to their processes or methods. In contrast, they said robotics (47.1%) and AI (58.0%) were only “somewhat important.”

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau

Federal statistical data is used to calculate funding to states, to understand economic issues, and population changes. This data is primarily maintained across 16 agencies and units and over 100 statistical programs, operating in coordination as the federal statistical system. In August 2024, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) held a forum on the federal statistical system, where experts identified challenges with the system—including in data privacy, quality, and accuracy, and meeting users' data needs. Specifically, experts identified challenges, such as the system’s ability to build and maintain public trust, particularly as it navigates emerging risks to privacy and confidentiality, to meet the needs of a diverse user base, from highly technical researchers to non-technical data users, facilitate access to data products, and offer appropriate guidance and tools tailored to users. While experts highlighted key benefits that alternative data sources—such as private sector data and administrative records—offer for improving federal statistical production and better meeting the needs of data users, statistical agencies face significant challenges in using alternative data, including legal barriers and dependence on data providers. Lastly, experts identified effective interagency coordination as key to modernizing statistical production, facilitating outreach to users, and alleviating resource constraints. However, the decentralized design of the system and the absence of a shared framework for interagency data sharing hinder coordination among agencies, creating barriers to data sharing. Suggestions for strengthening interagency coordination include modernizing legislation and establishing a shared data infrastructure.

Source: U.S. Government Accountability Office

Millions of U.S. families with young children struggle to afford one of the most basic necessities: diapers. Without enough diapers, children are at risk of serious health problems like rashes and infections, and parents may miss work or school, undermining family stability and economic mobility. Federal programs that help families purchase food and nutrition supports and provide cash assistance in times of need, like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), do not cover diapers, requiring parents to pay high out-of-pocket prices. This publication presents new data on the scale of diaper insecurity and its consequences. Researchers found that it will take an average of 4.8 billion diapers each year to fill the gap faced by U.S. households with children ages 3 and younger and below 300% of the federal poverty level. In addition, about one in four parents and caregivers who did not have enough diapers for their children reported missing work or school because they could not leave their children at childcare, missing an average of 5.1 workdays a month. Researchers also found that the average cost of diapering per child is about $100 a month, but families report only being able to pay a median of $65.

Source: Urban Institute

HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Heart disease is the leading cause of mortality in the United States. The American Heart Association’s “Life’s Essential 8” (LE8) is a metric with four behavioral factors (diet, physical activities, nicotine exposure, and sleep duration) and four health factors (blood pressure, blood lipids, blood glucose, and body mass index) used to assess cardiovascular health. Having a greater number of the four cardiovascular risk factors is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. This report presents prevalence estimates for none, one, or two or more of these risk factors (uncontrolled high blood pressure, uncontrolled high blood lipids, uncontrolled high mean blood glucose as measured with hemoglobin A1c, and high BMI) in U.S. adults during August 2021–August 2023. Key findings include that during August 2021 - August 2023, 36.4% of U.S. adults had no cardiovascular disease risk factors, 34.9% had one, and 28.7% had two or more. A higher percentage of men (31.7%) than women (25.8%) had two or more risk factors. The percentage of adults with no risk factors decreased with age, and the percentage of adults with one risk factor or two or more was higher among older adults. The percentage of adults with no risk factors was highest and the percentage of adults with two or more risk factors was lowest among those with family income 350% or more of the federal poverty level. From 2013 - 2014 to August 2021 - August 2023, the percentage of adults with two or more risk factors increased.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

An overdose occurs when someone takes more of a drug than their body can handle. Overdose deaths remain at historically high levels in the United States, with most deaths involving opioids. The primary purpose of this toolkit is to educate a broad audience on overdose causes, risks, and signs, as well as the steps to take when witnessing and responding to an overdose. In an overdose, the substances or medications that a person has taken can overpower the brain and other organs, preventing them from functioning normally. Common individual risk factors of an overdose include taking an amount of a drug that is greater than your tolerance level, returning to drug use after leaving jail/prison, or a healthcare setting where a medication for opioid use disorder was not provided or taken, or returning to drug use before receiving an injection of an FDA-approved medication for opioid use disorder. Opioid overdose reversal medications reverse the effects of an acute opioid overdose and restore breathing. These medications are available to the public by prescription, through standing orders or without a prescription, or at no charge from local community-based organizations. There are two FDA-approved overdose reversal medications – naloxone and nalmefene. These medications have been used for decades by emergency medical service (EMS) providers and lay people to reverse opioid overdose and resuscitate individuals who have experienced an overdose involving opioids. The medications can be administered intranasally through a device that sprays the medication into the person’s nose or injected into a person’s muscle.

Source: U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration

The report presents a comprehensive picture of the growing and evolving landscape of family caregiving. Specifically, the detailed analysis of this report focuses on the experiences, living situations, and needs of adult family caregivers in the U.S. Family caregivers include parents, friends, neighbors, and even children. In 2025, 63 million American adults provided ongoing care to adults or children with a medical condition or disability—representing almost one-quarter of all adults in the United States. This report finds that 24% of American adults are family caregivers. In addition, 59 million caregivers report caring for adults ages 18 and older, and 4 million report caring for a child under age 18 with an illness or disability. The average caregiver is 51 years old. Women account for the majority of caregivers (61%), and 61% of all caregivers identify as non-Hispanic white individuals. Twenty percent of caregivers live in rural areas, and 24% of family caregivers support more than one care recipient. Most caregivers are caring for relatives, especially parents or spouses, but 11% are caring for non-relatives such as friends or neighbors. Older caregivers tend to care for spouses, whereas younger ones are more likely to care for older generations. Care recipients are mostly older adults; nearly half are 75 years old or older. Most of these older adults face multiple chronic health conditions, such as age-related decline, Alzheimer’s or other dementias, or mobility limitations. Most caregivers live with their care recipient (40%) or nearby (35%). Seven in ten working-age (ages 18 to 64) caregivers are engaged in paid employment. Balancing work and care responsibilities is challenging. Half of all working caregivers experience work impacts such as arriving late, leaving early, or taking time off to meet caregiving obligations. Nearly half of caregivers report at least one negative financial impact from their caregiving responsibilities. One-third of caregivers have stopped saving money, and 24% have used up short-term savings.

Source: AARP


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POLICYNOTES
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