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IN THIS ISSUE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Concealed-Carry Permits and Firearm Sales Are Low-Dimensional

John D. Rockefeller, Jr. and Public Law Enforcement: A Progressive Era Public-Private Partnership


EDUCATION

Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2025

Investigating Grade-Level and Text Genre Effects in Quality Talk Discussions: An AI-Powered Discourse Analysis of Upper Primary Students’ High-Level Comprehension

Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Risks for Reading Difficulties Across Elementary School


GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

A Summary of Veteran-Related Statistics: Second Edition

Path Dependence in the Labor Market: The Long-Run Effects of Early Career Occupational Experience

An Overview of the Rent Reporting Landscape for State and Local Policymakers


HEALTH AND
HUMAN SERVICES

Exploring Artificial Intelligence and Automation in Medicaid

Caregiving in the U.S. 2025: Caring Across States



November 14, 2025

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

This research uses principal component analysis to examine population-adjusted, county-level counts of concealed-carry permits across 1,111 counties in 15 states (2006-2019) and gun sales across 168 counties in 4 states (2008-2020). Both measures are low-dimensional, indicating that most county-level variation can be summarized by a small number of stable common factors. The results reveal that gun sales and concealed-carry permitting are spatially patterned and highly persistent over time. This pattern suggests that long-run local characteristics-such as culture, institutions, and state regulatory environments-shape permitting levels, whereas short-term, within-county changes (for example, annual fluctuations in crime) contribute relatively little to observed variation. Because firearm prevalence is a recognized determinant of injury, mortality, and public health expenditure, understanding its structural stability is essential for health economic evaluation and for designing effective interventions. By documenting the structural stability of firearm markets, the research findings clarify why cross-sectional studies may overstate associations between firearm prevalence and social outcomes, while panel approaches that absorb fixed differences more accurately capture within-area dynamics. The results have implications for evaluating policies that aim to modify local firearm environments, and for interpreting empirical evidence on guns, crime, and public safety.

Source: University of Central Missouri

A cadre of capitalists and philanthropists in New York and Chicago helped shape the public law enforcement agenda during the Progressive Era by forming and funding private organizations intent on curbing white slave trafficking. Correspondence in the Rockefeller Archive Center reveals that John D. Rockefeller, Jr. wielded influence over wealthy citizens nationally. Rockefeller listened to his trusted advisers and he and his acquaintances matched one another's donations to organizations such as the American Vigilance Association. "Leading citizens" participated in the day-to-day operations of the private organizations to which they subscribed as donors, and they created new organizations to allow greater intervention in matters they deemed of moral and public health concern. Undercover surveillance became a key tool in the policing of prostitution—a directive of the donors who were keen for the private investigators to learn and deploy modern, social science techniques. New York City turned for guidance to efforts pioneered in Chicago on the public-private partnership between the city and private citizens. Rockefeller expressed his interest that New York should adopt Chicago's regulatory measures, and he arranged and ratified the hiring of men who started in Chicago, including Clifford G. Roe, a Chicago assistant state's attorney who wrote novels based on the cases he tried.

Source: Issue Lab

EDUCATION

In 2024-25, a total amount of $173.7 billion in grant aid supported postsecondary students, reflecting a one-year increase of 5.4% after adjusting for inflation. This increase was largely driven by federal Pell Grant aid, which increased by 19% over the previous year. The Pell Grant is a type of grant that provides funds to undergraduate students who display exceptional financial need. The number of Pell Grant recipients also increased by 14%, from 6.4 million to 7.3 million students. The average tuition and fees paid by students and their families after aid rose slightly for the 2025-26 academic year but remain well below historic peaks. At public four-year colleges, net tuition and fees for first-time, full-time students increased just 1.3% to $2,300 from last year, when adjusted for inflation. That figure is down 48.3% from the peak in 2012-2013. At private nonprofits, net tuition and fees for first-time, full-time students rose 3.7% annually to $16,910 in the 2025-26 academic year, when adjusted for inflation. By comparison, that’s down 14.6% from the peak for private colleges in 2006-07.

Source: College Board

This research aimed to explore the extent to which groups of upper primary students evidenced growth on indicators of high-level comprehension (HLC) as they engaged in small-group, text-based discussions over a school year, while also examining grade-level and text genre differences. These small-group, text-based discussions provide opportunities for students to develop their critical analytic thinking and argumentation, supporting their HLC. The research team employed a single-group, longitudinal design, whereby an approach to these discussions, Quality Talk, was embedded into the language arts curriculum of six upper elementary classrooms. Video-recorded discussions (n = 371) were transcribed. Researchers employed an artificial intelligence (AI) powered coding approach to identify indicators of HLC in the discussion transcripts. Groups of upper primary students, on average, evidenced growth in the rates of HLC indicators over the school year. Groups composed of fifth-grade students, on average, had higher elaborated explanation rates than fourth-grade students, and all students, on average, produced a higher rate of elaborated explanations for discussions based on mixed genre versus expository genre texts.

Source: Science Direct

Researchers investigated the early onset, over-time stability, and explanatory factors of racial and ethnic differences in the risks for reading difficulties including repeatedly across elementary school. Through analyses of a nationally representative cohort (n = 16,088), researchers found 14% 17%, and 14% of Black, Hispanic, and Native American students compared to about 6% and 8% of White and Asian American students, respectively, displayed reading difficulties in kindergarten. Large differences continued to occur through fifth grade. About 26% of Black, Hispanic, or Native American students compared to about 10% of White or Asian American students ever displayed reading difficulties from first to fifth grade. Sixteen percent of Black students, 17% of Hispanic students, and 12% of Native American students displayed repeated reading difficulties. About 7% and 4% of White and Asian American students did so. Results from multivariable risk and resilience logistic regression models using the antecedent-opportunity-propensity theoretical framework indicated that other explanatory factors fully explained initially observed racial or ethnic differences in the risks for reading difficulties during elementary school. Particularly strong kindergarten predictors were the family's socioeconomic status and the student's reading achievement mathematics achievement working memory, and inhibitory control (. Negative binomial regression models of repeated reading difficulties and robustness checks further supported the findings. Economic and educational policies to address racial and ethnic differences in the risks for reading difficulties including repeatedly over time may need to begin by kindergarten.

Source: University at Albany

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

Veterans now comprise a shrinking share of the U.S. adult population, declining from 11.7% in 2011 to 6.1% in 2023. The veteran population is older and less racially and ethnically diverse than non-veterans. However, those veterans who served after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11), are substantially younger, more diverse, and more likely to hold a bachelor's degree than earlier veteran cohorts. Patterns in mental health outcomes underscore important challenges for certain subgroups. Younger and post-9/11 veterans report higher levels of psychological distress and substance use disorders compared with older veterans and, in some cases, their non-veteran peers. Alcohol-related risks are elevated across the course of their lives, and treatment utilization varies, with higher rates observed among post-9/11, female, and sexual minority veterans. Labor market outcomes suggest that veterans are generally well integrated into the civilian workforce. Veterans have lower unemployment rates than non-veterans, their household incomes are higher on average, and they are more likely to be employed in the public sector. Veterans are also more likely than non-veterans to fall into higher income brackets, with nearly 30% earning $150,000 or more annually.

Source: RAND Corporation

This study researches the causal effect of different early career occupational experiences on labor market outcomes. Researchers paired over two decades of administrative tax data with internal personnel records from one of the largest employers of young adults in the United States: the U.S. Army. Enlistees work in a diverse and varied set of occupations, including non-combat roles like mechanics, legal services, financial specialists, cooks, dental hygienists, police officers, and network/computer specialists. Occupational eligibility is determined by test score cutoffs, which was leveraged in a series of 35 regression discontinuity designs. Researchers found that a typical early career occupational experience generates a substantial amount of path dependence, with point estimates that suggest an. increase in the likelihood of being observed in an identical or closely related occupation as much as 20 years later. The corresponding impact of different occupations on earnings are highly heterogeneous, yet predictable: long-run changes in the average earnings of the occupations applicants are pushed into, and pulled out-of, can explain over 60% of the causal variation across cutoffs, with point estimates that suggest improvements in occupational earnings premia translate dollar-for-dollar into economic success. Taken together, the results highlight the importance of early career occupational experience as a key channel for promoting long-run well-being among young adults who are not college bound.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

Rent reporting—the practice of providing data on rent payments to at least one of the three major consumer credit bureaus—has grown substantially over the last decade. State and local policy can play a role in expanding access to rent reporting as a credit-building tool for low- and moderate-income renters and in protecting renters from the potential risks of rent reporting. Several jurisdictions across the country have already taken steps to encourage, require, or regulate rent reporting for their residents. This brief describes the policy landscape and key decision points for state and local policymakers. A person’s credit record has a significant influence on their options for participating in the U.S. economy. Yet it can be difficult for people, and particularly renters, to find reliable ways to build credit. Homeowners can build credit by making mortgage payments. But rent payments have not traditionally been reported to credit bureaus or included in credit scores, even though rent payments are often renters’ largest monthly expense. That is changing. The major credit scoring models have begun adjusting scoring algorithms to factor in reported rental payments. And recent analysis shows that participating in positive-only rent reporting leads to an increased likelihood of a person having a credit score. To date, Colorado, Delaware, and Washington, DC, have created pilot programs for rent reporting, and California passed a state-wide mandate for properties with more than 15 units. Federal agencies and regulatory bodies are also exploring rent reporting. For example, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued compliance and policy guidance on rent reporting and the Federal Housing Finance Authority announced in July 2025 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would begin allowing lenders to use VantageScore 4.0 scores, which factor in reported rent payments.

Source: Urban Institute

HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

This report examines how artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are being discussed and deployed within state Medicaid programs. Using text analysis of nearly 900 publicly available documents from 45 states and insights from stakeholder interviews, the study identifies where and how AI is being used, which states are ahead of the curve, and recommendations for improving transparency and monitoring as AI systems continue to proliferate. Policymakers need clearer information to ensure that efficiency gains do not come at the expense of trust in public programs. For example, (1) There is little systematic public documentation or reporting of AI usage by states and Medicaid managed care organizations they contract with. In most states, the researchers found agencies publish little about AI, other kinds of algorithms, or automation being used in Medicaid program administration. (2) In a smaller set of states, managed care organizations describe using AI for core functions like patient risk stratification and utilization management, but with limited detail. In a seven-state deeper dive, researchers found that contracts with managed care organizations do discuss AI usage in various Medicaid functions like patient risk stratification and utilization management, typically including framing language on improving efficiency. The team found little to no information reported about how these tools work, specific methodologies, evaluations, or who oversees them. (3) Mentions of generative AI (genAI) were nearly absent from the team’s analysis of documents as of late 2024, but they could see a rise in its use after recent legislation that includes significant changes to the Medicaid program. Researchers heard from Medicaid stakeholders that genAI is still in the early consideration phase, and only one genAI case (an intelligent voice assistant) was found, which is considered outside the scope of formal patient care.

Source: Urban Institute

With nearly one in four adults serving as family caregivers, this state-by-state analysis offers the clearest picture yet of the challenges they face. Caregiving is a widespread reality across the U.S., with millions of adults providing care for loved ones with disabilities or complex medical conditions. Caregiver experiences vary significantly by state, especially in terms of intensity, financial impact, and access to support. High-intensity caregiving is common, with nearly half of caregivers providing extensive assistance with daily tasks and spending many hours each week on care. Financial strain is a major issue, with many caregivers reporting economic hardship and difficulty accessing affordable support services. Access to paid caregiving is uneven, largely influenced by state policies and programs, leaving many caregivers unpaid despite the intensity of their roles. Balancing work and caregiving is a challenge, with most caregivers also employed but lacking adequate workplace benefits, especially among hourly workers. Caregiver well-being is at risk, with widespread emotional stress and health challenges, and limited support systems to address these needs. Healthcare systems often overlook caregivers, with few being asked about their own needs or those of the person they care for, despite their critical role in care delivery. In Florida, one quarter of adults (24%) are family caregivers, currently providing care to a family member or friend or had provided care within the last year, representing 4,451,000 adults in Florida. Among Florida caregivers, 54% experienced at least one negative financial impact such as taking on more debt, stopping saving, or being unable to afford basic expenses, 41% report moderate to high levels of emotional stress, 36% receive no help with caregiving (either paid or unpaid). Furthermore, caregiver’s average age is 51 years old, 59% have worked while caregiving, and 59% are women.

Source: AARP


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