OPPAGA logo

IN THIS ISSUE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Sexual Victimization in Prisons Reported by Inmates, 2023-24

Sexual Recidivism Risk Instrument: Validation and Calibration of the Static-99R with Persons Subject to Sex Offender Certification Review Branch Review, 2010 to 2017

Supervision Violations and Their Impact on Incarceration


EDUCATION

Census Bureau Data Show Large Gains in Educational Attainment in Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas

K-12 Governance: State Profiles

Understanding the Needs of First-Generation College Students Who Stop Out


GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

National Science Foundation: Schedule Delays Continue for Some Major and Midscale Research Infrastructure Projects

Federal Aviation Administration Aerospace Forecasts: Commercial Space 2025

Automation and Rent Dissipation: Implications for Wages, Inequality, and Productivity


HEALTH AND
HUMAN SERVICES

Changes in Timing of Prenatal Care Initiation: United States, 2021–2024

National Strategy for Suicide Prevention



February 27, 2026

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

The National Inmate Survey defines sexual victimization as any forced or coerced sexual activity with another inmate or any sexual activity with facility staff. In 2023–24, an estimated 4.1% of adult prison inmates reported being sexually victimized during the prior 12 months (or since admission to the facility if the date of admission was less than 12 months prior), which was similar to 2011–12 (4.0%). Specifically, in 2023–24, 2.3% of adult inmates reported sexual victimization by another inmate, and 2.2% reported sexual victimization by facility staff. Lastly, 17 prisons, including one male facility in Florida, the Apalachee Correctional Institution, were identified as high-rate facilities based on their rates of overall sexual victimization in 2023–24.

Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics

The Static-99R is a sexual recidivism risk instrument used to assess the risk of recidivism of adult men who have a history of sexual offenses. This brief examines whether the instrument could reliably distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists, as defined by a rearrest within a five- or ten-year follow-up period, among those reviewed for certification as sexually dangerous persons. Researchers found that for the five-year cohort, those with scores between 2 and 8 (76.4% of the cohort), Static-99R recidivism risk norms overestimated their risk of recidivism by 1.64 to 3.94 times. For the ten-year cohort, those with scores between 2 and 6 (69.2% of the cohort) had their risk of recidivism overestimated by 1.94 to 4.55 times. In addition, calibration depicts the degree to which an estimate reflects the true probability of occurrence of the measured outcome/event. The findings of this study suggest that the Static-99R is able to distinguish any and violent recidivism better than it can predict sexual recidivism. Further, the recidivism risk norms provided by the developers of the Static-99R overestimate the likelihood of sexual recidivism for the majority of people in the review.

Source: Federal Bureau of Prisons

The Council of State Government Justice Center’s most recent analysis shows that after earlier declines in prison admissions across the country, states are now on sharply different trajectories—some continuing to lower admissions while others reverse course. In 7 states, including Florida, admissions returned to near-2018 levels. Admissions due to probation and parole violations have decreased nationwide since 2018. In 2023, nearly 200,000 people were admitted to prison for violating probation or parole, including over 110,000 people for technical violations. However, supervision violations continue to be a big share of prison admissions. Most new crimes are not committed by people on supervision. In contrast to public perception, supervision violations for new criminal activity accounted for less than 2% of all arrests in 2023. Only 5% of people on parole (0.5% of total arrests) were returned to prison for a new crime violation. States are spending billions to incarcerate people for supervision violations. In 2023, states spent an estimated $10 billion incarcerating people for supervision violations—with over $3 billion spent incarcerating people for technical violations alone.

Source: The Council of State Governments

EDUCATION

The percentage of adults age 25 and over with a bachelor’s degree or higher increased significantly in metropolitan statistical areas (metro areas), up from 34.2% during the 2015-2019 period to 37.8% during the 2020-2024 period, according to new American Community Survey 5-year estimates. Among metro areas, the Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina metro area, experienced one of the largest increases in educational attainment among adults age 25 and over with a bachelor’s degree or higher, from 45.3% in 2015-2019 to 53.4% in 2020-2024. The Springfield, Massachusetts metro area was the only metro area that experienced a decline in educational attainment, from 32.8% in 2015-2019 to 29.3% in 2020-2024Roughly one-half (50.8%) of micropolitan statistical areas (micro-areas) also noted an increase in educational attainment in the 25 and over population. These areas consist of the county or counties associated with at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population. The Taos, New Mexico micro area experienced one of the largest positive changes, from 28.7% in 2015-2019 to 38.5% in 2020-2024 (9.8 percentage points). Among college graduates age 25 and over who have education as their field of degree, the Gadsden, Alabama metro area had one of the largest percentage-point increases from 24.5% to 29.1% between 2015-2019 and 2020-2024. The Elizabethtown, Kentucky metro area had one of the largest percentage-point decreases in the same group from 19.0% to 13.0% between 2015-2019 and 2020-2024.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau

Education policy is shaped by each state’s constitution and laws, how leadership roles are structured and filled, and the authority different state policymakers hold. These systems can be complex and look different from state to state. Despite these differences and complexities, recognizing shared K-12 governance approaches can help shed light on how education decisions are made and how policy takes shape. This resource provides a national overview of constitutional language across states and explores how constitutional and statutory language provide for appointments as well as powers and duties of key policymaking roles in K-12 education policy. For example, the following models represent common approaches identified across states: Model I -- Appointed Board, Appointed Chief: Voters elect the governor, who then appoints both the members of the state board of education and the chief state school officer; Model II -- Governor Appoints Board, Board Appoints Chief: Voters elect the governor, who then appoints either all or most of the members of the state board of education. The state board, in turn, appoints the chief state school officer; Model III -- Appointed Board, Elected Chief: Voters elect both the governor and the chief state school officer. The governor then appoints the state board of education; Model IV -- Elected Board, Board Appoints Chief: Voters elect both the governor and the state board of education. The state board then appoints the chief state school officer; and Other -- These states function using various components of the other models. Florida is listed as Model II.

Source: Education Commission of the States

College stop-out rates have long been a challenge in higher education, and particularly at community colleges. Stop-out students are those who temporarily leave higher education with the intention of returning at a later time. Among those most likely to stop out are first-generation college students, who represent about half of the nation’s undergraduates. Based on survey and interview data from first-generation college students who stopped out during the fall 2022 term at four Hispanic Serving Institutions in California, this brief examines the reasons these students gave for leaving, the role their social networks played in informing and supporting their decision to stop out, and how they thought about their future, including any considerations they may have had for reenrollment. The authors find the students in their sample left college primarily due to financial, familial, employment, and other responsibilities, which appeared more difficult to manage when students were uncertain about their academic pathway or were feeling isolated at their college. Students reported relying mostly on family and friends for support when they decided to stop out, and few indicated that an advisor or other institutional actor was a part of their social network. These findings suggest that stronger engagement from institutional faculty and staff could be helpful to first-generation students who are considering stopping out.

Source: Community College Research Center

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

The National Science Foundation (NSF) has 21 research infrastructure projects funded through its Major Research Equipment and Facilities Construction (MREFC) and Research and Related Activities accounts, as of July 2025. This includes 13 major projects ($100 million or more) and eight midscale projects ($20 million to $100 million) at various stages of design, construction, and implementation. While all of these research infrastructure projects remained within their NSF-authorized total cost since the Government Accountability Office’s June 2024 report, several have experienced schedule delays or scope changes. Specifically, as of July 2025, four of the seven major projects in construction reported delays of 4 to 27 months relative to the schedules GAO reported in June 2024. The NSF attributed delays to numerous factors, such as labor shortages, contractor underperformance, and budgetary uncertainty. Further, NSF reported reductions in scope for two of these projects, as well as three of eight midscale projects. Modern and effective research infrastructure, including facilities and equipment, is critical to maintaining U.S. global leadership in science and engineering.

Source: U.S. Government Accountability Office


The Federal Aviation Administration Aerospace Forecasts is developed to support the budget and planning needs of the federal agency. The report explains and incorporates emerging trends of the different segments of the aviation industry. This year’s report contains updated forecasts for General Aviation activity and pilots, as well as Commercial Space and Unmanned Aircraft System fleet, Advanced Air Mobility, and remote pilots. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts increased operations over previous projections. For example, in the high case scenario, the FAA projects 4,010 authorized space operations over the ten-year forecast horizon – going from 183 operations in Fiscal Year 2025 to 566 operations in Fiscal Year 2034. In the low case scenario, FAA forecasts 2,067 authorized space operations -- going from 174 operations in Fiscal Year 2025 to 259 operations in Fiscal Year 2034. The increase in operations reflects demand for activities such as in-orbit servicing, Mars exploration, satellite deployment and replacement, and space tourism. In addition, the current forecast for satellite deployment in the near term includes Amazon’s Kuiper and SpaceX’s Starlink. Deployment of Amazon’s Kuiper is expected to begin in 2025 with 100 percent deployment by 2031. Lastly, Starlink’s LEO is expected to be 100 percent deployed by the end of 2025.

Source: Federal Aviation Administration

This studies the effects of automation in a task-based economy in which some jobs pay workers rents—wages above their outside option. Specifically, the paper discusses how automation disproportionately targets tasks that pay workers above-market wages, eroding those rents and amplifying wage losses for affected workers. Using U.S. data from 1980 to 2016, researchers show that this “rent dissipation” not only reduces wage dispersion within exposed groups but also offsets much of automation’s potential productivity gains. Automation accounts for 52% of the increase in between-group inequality since 1980, with rent dissipation explaining one-fifth of this total. The research finds that automation explains over half of the rise in between-group inequality since 1980, with rent dissipation playing a significant role. Together, these results highlight an important channel through which automation shapes inequality and overall economic efficiency.

Source: Blueprint Labs

HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Early prenatal care initiation can improve the likelihood of a healthy pregnancy and baby.. This report describes trends in the timing of prenatal care initiation from 2016 (the first year for which national data are available based on the 2003 birth certificate revision) to 2024. Changes by maternal age, race and Hispanic origin, and late (beginning in the third trimester) or no care by state of residence also are shown from 2021 to 2024. Specifically, late or no care increased in 36 states. In 2024, more than 1 in every 10 mothers had late or no care in five states, including Florida. Key findings from the report include that after increasing from 2016 (77.1%) to 2021 (78.3%), prenatal care beginning in the first trimester decreased to 75.5% in 2024. From 2021 to 2024, care beginning in the second trimester increased from 15.4% to 17.3%, and late or no care increased from 6.3% to 7.3%. From 2021 to 2024, prenatal care beginning in the first trimester decreased, while care beginning in the second trimester and late or no care increased, for all maternal age groups. First trimester prenatal care decreased, while second trimester prenatal care and late or no care increased, for nearly all race and Hispanic-origin groups from 2021 to 2024. From 2021 to 2024, late or no care increased in 36 states and the District of Columbia.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

The 2024 National Strategy for Suicide Prevention is a 10-year, comprehensive, whole-of-society approach to suicide prevention that provides concrete recommendations for addressing gaps in the suicide prevention field. This coordinated and comprehensive approach to suicide prevention at the national, state, tribal, local, and territorial levels relies upon critical partnerships across the public and private sectors. People with lived experience are critical to the success of this work. The National Strategy seeks to prevent suicide risk in the first place; identify and support people with increased risk through treatment and crisis intervention; prevent reattempts; promote long-term recovery; and support survivors of suicide loss. The guide suggests entities establish effective, broad-based, collaborative, and sustainable suicide prevention partnerships, implement effective suicide prevention services as a core component of health care, improve the quality, timeliness, scope, usefulness, and accessibility of data needed for suicide-related surveillance, research, evaluation, and quality improvement, and embed health equity into all comprehensive suicide prevention activities.

Source: U.S. Health and Human Services


N O T E :
An online subscription may be required to view some items.




CONNECT WITH US
web logo LN logo email logo

GRADUATE STUDENT POSITION
OPPAGA is currently accepting applications for a full-time, summer Graduate Student Position. OPPAGA is an ideal setting for gaining hands-on experience in policy analysis and working on a wide range of issues of interest to the Florida Legislature. OPPAGA provides an opportunity to work in a legislative policy research offices with a highly qualified, multidisciplinary staff.

EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES

GOVERNMENT PROGRAM SUMMARIES (GPS)
Government Program Summaries (GPS) provides descriptive information on Florida state agencies, including funding, contact information, and references to other sources of agency information.

POLICYNOTES
A publication of the Florida Legislature's Office of Program Policy Analysis and Government Accountability. Click here to subscribe to this publication. As a joint legislative unit, OPPAGA works with both the Senate and the House of Representatives to conduct objective research, program reviews, and contract management for the Florida Legislature.

PolicyNotes, published every Friday, features reports, articles, and websites with timely information of interest to policymakers and researchers. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed by third parties as reported in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect OPPAGA's views.

Permission is granted to make and distribute verbatim copies of PolicyNotes provided that this section is preserved on all copies.