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IN THIS ISSUE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Victimization At and Away From School Among Students Ages 12 to 18, 2014–2024 – Statistical Tables

Aligning Safety With Justice: The Case for a Disability-Inclusive Sentence Review Statute

From Method Validation to Case-Specific Inference: The Evidentiary Threshold Problem in Forensic Science

EDUCATION

50-State Comparison: State K-3 Policies

Kumon Up: Private Tutoring Centers and Student Achievement

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

Businesses Are Using Artificial Intelligence to Transform Work, Not Cut Jobs

From Pink Slips to Polling Stations: The Electoral Consequences of Mass-Layoff Announcements

Baby Busts and Growth Booms: Demographic Change and the Macroeconomy

HEALTH AND
HUMAN SERVICES

Fruit and Vegetable Consumption Among Adults: United States, August 2021–August 2023

State Medicaid Coverage of Certified Professional Midwives and Certified Midwives



September 25, 2026

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

This report details rates of theft and nonfatal violent victimization at and away from school for students ages 12 to 18 from 2014 through 2024 based on results from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey, which serves as the nation’s primary source of data on criminal victimization. Findings include that the total victimization rate at school in 2024 (27.0 victimizations per 1,000 students ages 12 to 18) did not differ significantly from the rate in 2014. The theft victimization rate at school in 2024 was higher for students ages 12 to 14 (7.5 per 1,000) than for students ages 15 to 18 (3.0 per 1,000). There were no statistically significant differences between male and female students in the rates of victimization at school across all types of crime in 2024. The total victimization rate at school in 2024 was higher for students from households that made less than $25,000 per year (60.3 per 1,000) than those whose households made between $25,000 and $49,999 (26.7 per 1,000).

Source: U.S. Department of Justice

People with disabilities (physical, cognitive, and social) are significantly overrepresented in jails and prisons in the U.S. Studies have reported that those in state and federal prisons are about two and a half times as likely to report one or more impairments than adults in the general population (38% of those incarcerated versus 15% of those in the general population). People with disabilities do not commit crimes at a higher rate than those without disabilities, but those with disabilities are more likely to be arrested and convicted than those without. This article proposes a model statute which would make eligible for second look people whose disabilities contributed to (1) the nature of the offense; (2) their behavior and/or misperceptions of their behavior before, during, and after their arrests; (3) their inability to fully access their due process rights during representation by counsel and courtroom legal proceedings; (4) their struggle while incarcerated, including being disciplined for infractions; or (5) obstacles to their developing reentry plans. The proposed statute mirrors existing laws that provide sentence review opportunities to other vulnerable individuals.

Source: The Sentencing Project

The scientific validation of a forensic method and the evidentiary interpretation of an individual forensic finding are related but distinct epistemic tasks. A method may demonstrate acceptable analytical performance under defined validation conditions without thereby establishing that every result produced through that method possesses the same evidentiary meaning in a particular criminal case. This article examines the evidentiary threshold between methodological validity and case specific inference. It argues that forensic reliability should not be treated as a single property that travels automatically from a validated method to a conclusion. The article distinguishes analytical validity, measurement reliability, evidentiary relevance, inferential validity, and case-specific robustness. The article proposes an Evidentiary Threshold Framework organized around five questions: what has been validated, what has actually been observed, which proposition is being evaluated, what alternative explanations remain compatible with the finding, and what level of conclusion the evidence can legitimately support. The article concludes that forensic evidence should be considered reliable not merely when a method performs adequately in validation studies, but when the transition from validated method to case-specific conclusion remains transparent, proposition sensitive, empirically supported, and appropriately bounded.

Source: Stanford University

EDUCATION

Following a high-quality early care and education experience, the kindergarten-through-third-grade years set the foundation upon which future learning builds. Key policy components of a quality experience in kindergarten through third grade include school readiness and transitions, kindergarten requirements, educator quality, and prevention, intervention and assessments. Key takeaways from the report, which researched the statutes and regulations in all 50 states, include that 17 states and the District of Columbia require that children attend kindergarten. Forty-six states plus the District of Columbia require districts to offer at least half-day kindergarten. Of those, 14 states and the District of Columbia require districts to offer full-day kindergarten. Florida requires school districts to offer kindergarten, but does not specify a requirement for half or full day. Forty-five states and the District of Columbia require assessments prior to the federally mandated third grade summative assessments. This includes screeners and diagnostic, formative, and summative assessments. Forty-four states and the District of Columbia have policies related to pre-service training in reading instruction for K-3 educators, and 33 states require all in-service teachers in certain grades to complete a professional development program. Seventeen states, including Florida, require grade retention for third graders not meeting proficiency benchmarks.

Source: Education Commission of the States

Private tutoring centers have grown into a common feature of K-12 education in the U.S. Chains like Kumon, Sylvan, and Mathnasium have expanded from a few hundred locations in the late 1990s to several thousand today, and millions of families now pay for instruction outside the regular school day. Per the authors, this study provides the first comprehensive evidence on private tutoring center usage and its impact on academic skills. Findings include that nearly half of tutoring users are from the top income decile, with Asian and White households five and two times as likely to purchase tutoring as Black and Hispanic households. In addition, the opening of a district's first chain center raises district-wide math and reading scores by 0.02-0.03 standard deviations and at a much lower cost than typical public spending to produce similar gains. Math effects are largest for White and Asian students, so that center entry widens racial achievement gaps, though less so in more racially integrated districts. The authors conclude that investments in private tutoring centers help their users, deepen educational inequality, and shape outcomes by which state accountability systems and families judge schools.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to raise concerns about job losses. An August 2026 survey of firms in New York and New Jersey found that AI use has continued to increase and is now widespread, with 61% of service firms reporting AI use in 2026 relative to 40% in 2025 and 25% in 2024. Businesses in knowledge-intensive sectors (e.g., finance) have the highest AI usage rates. But while AI adoption has become widespread, most firms have made only limited investments in AI. For example, 75% of service firms and more than 90% of manufacturers characterize their AI investments as minimal to modest, ranging from use of free AI tools to allocating a small share of spending to AI tools or services. Only 4% of service firms reported layoffs in response to AI over the past six months, compared to 1% in a 2025 survey; no manufacturing firms reported AI-related layoffs in 2025 or 2026. About 15% of service firms said they had hired fewer workers than they would have if not for AI use, similar to the 12% reported in 2025. The authors conclude that AI adoption in the workplace is now fairly broad but investments and worker usage remain limited.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Mass layoffs can have severe consequences for displaced workers, sizable employment spillovers within local labor markets, and broader social costs for households and communities. Mass-layoff announcements may have even broader political consequences because they publicly signal local economic disruption to individuals not directly affected by layoffs. This study examines how mass-layoff announcements affect electoral outcomes using data from the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, which requires larger employers to provide advance notice before covered plant closings and mass layoffs, linked to county-level voting outcomes from 1996 to 2024. Controlling for local labor-market conditions, layoff announcements increase the Democratic-Republican vote margin by reducing Republican votes and increasing Democratic votes without clearly altering election winners or incumbent support. Per the authors, the vote margin change resulted from change in turnout composition rather than vote switching. Voting changes did not detectably alter which party won the next election, appeared across political offices, were not driven by manufacturing decline, and were geographically localized.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The secular decline in birth rates across the globe over the past seven decades has slowed population growth, raised average ages, and reshaped labor markets and the macroeconomy. Contrary to the widespread expectation that these trends hamper economic growth, the authors of this study find that lower birth rates are associated with higher growth in gross domestic product (GDP) per working-age adult across countries and higher wage growth across U.S. commuting zones, with no negative impact on aggregate GDP or earnings. These patterns are not explained by educational upgrading, rising female labor force participation, or the declining importance of agriculture. The authors argue that patterns reflect the endogenous, labor-saving response of technology to the scarcity of younger workers. Consistent with this interpretation, countries and regions with lower birth rates exhibit more labor-saving patents and growing high-tech activity. There is also higher total factor productivity growth across countries and industries. Per the authors, declines in the size of the younger population, rather than population size per se, drive the effects of birth rates on growth.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Consuming fruits and vegetables provides essential nutrients, such as vitamins and fiber, and reduces the risk of chronic disease. During 2015–2018, 67.3% of U.S. adults consumed fruit on a given day and 95.0% consumed vegetables. This report provides updated estimates of the percentage of adults ages 20 and older who consumed fruits and vegetables on a given day during August 2021–August 2023, including the types of fruits and vegetables. Key findings include that during August 2021–August 2023, 69.9% of adults ages 20 and older consumed any fruit on a given day, with a higher percentage of women consuming fruit (73.5%) than men (66.1%), particularly citrus, melons, or berries, and other whole fruits. More than 9 in 10 adults consumed any vegetables on a given day (93.3%), with no difference between men and women. The percentage of adults consuming any fruit; citrus, melons, or berries; and other types of whole fruit increased with increasing family income. The percentage of adults consuming any vegetables, dark green vegetables, red or orange vegetables, and other vegetable types increased with increasing family income.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Evidence demonstrates that midwifery care is associated with positive maternal and infant health outcomes. To improve access to maternity care, many states are leveraging Medicaid coverage of certified professional midwife (CPM) and certified midwife (CM) services to strengthen the maternal health workforce and expand access to maternity care. This report summarizes states’ approaches to operationalizing Medicaid coverage of CPMs and CMs, including differences in scope of practice authority, reimbursement rates, covered services, and the settings in which CPMs and CMs are eligible for reimbursement. Key findings include that 22 states and Washington, D.C., currently provide Medicaid coverage of CPMs and/or CMs, an increase of four states since 2023. Ten states and Washington, D.C., reimburse midwives at 100% of the physician rate. In addition, at least two states allow midwives to practice beyond patients’ homes and birth centers (e.g., in provider office settings), and eleven states reimburse midwives for services beyond maternity care (e.g., perinatal health screenings in Florida). The authors conclude that states continue to support access to maternity care by expanding policies for scope of practice, broadening the settings in which midwives can provide care, and increasing Medicaid reimbursement rates for midwifery services.

Source: National Academy for State Health Policy


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