OPPAGA logo

IN THIS ISSUE:

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

Los Angeles County Public Defender Attorney Workload Study

The Changing Geography of Gun Theft in the United States, 2018-2024

Predicting Self-Reported Confessions

EDUCATION

Early Findings from the Re-Enrollment and Completion Team (REACT) Intervention

Who Rides Out the Storm After Graduation? Socioeconomic Gaps in First Job Transitions

A Year Later, What Teens Tell Us About School Cellphone Bans

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

The Future of U.S. Transportation Policy Demands New Ways to Pursue Long-Standing Goals

When Policy Shapes Perception: The 2021 Child Tax Credit and Consumer Sentiment

Young Adults in the U.S. Are Increasingly Wary of Artificial Intelligence, Concerned It Will Take Jobs

HEALTH AND
HUMAN SERVICES

Protein Consumption Among Youth and Adults: United States, August 2021–August 2023

State Approaches to Relative Child Care in the Child Care and Development Fund

Legislating Longevity: State Public Health Laws and Mortality in the Early Twentieth Century



October 16, 2026

CRIMINAL JUSTICE

The Los Angeles County Public Defender’s Office (LACPD) is the largest public defense agency in the U.S., serving nearly 10 million residents and employing more than 700 attorneys. This study aims to evaluate LACPD’s Case Complexity System (CCS), which algorithmically scores the complexity of individual cases, and assess the office’s broader organizational capacity to effectively represent its clients amid growing case complexity and resource constraints. The authors use data from three sources: a time study of attorneys’ self-reported work hours, a Delphi panel composed of experienced LACPD attorneys, and CCS’s algorithmically generated scores. Findings include that the CCS assigns higher scores to cases that both the time study and the Delphi panel estimated as the most demanding. However, most felony cases cluster at the lower end of the CCS scale, and mid-level felony categories with varying workload demands often receive similar scores, limiting differentiation. In addition, CCS scores are not calibrated to be cardinally proportional—a case with a score of 4 does not necessarily reflect twice the amount of attorney hours as a case with a score of 2—limiting LACPD’s ability to use scores to determine how many attorney hours a given caseload requires.

Source: RAND Corporation

Firearm theft is a potentially important source of guns used in crime. This study used a panel of 2,014 police agencies reporting consistently from 2018-2024 (covering 26% of the U.S. population) and a broader 2024 cross-section of agencies (covering 83% of the U.S. population) to examine trends in gun theft rates by urbanicity, offense, and theft location, and to estimate the national volume of stolen firearms. Findings include that approximately 385,500 firearms were stolen nationwide in 2024. Rates of gun theft in urban areas surpassed rural areas, even as rates declined across all levels of urbanicity after a 2022 peak. Within vehicle break-ins (thefts from cars parked at residences) declined across all levels of urbanicity, while thefts from public areas increased. The authors conclude that gun theft is increasingly concentrated in urban areas, and break-ins increasingly occur in public spaces rather than at residences.

Source: SSRN

This article examines the self-reported experiences of interrogation and confession of incarcerated individuals. Nearly 250 incarcerated individuals in local jails across the U.S. were asked about their most recent interrogation experience. The authors sought descriptive information on the interrogation (location, duration, custody), suspects' perceptions of evidence against them, and suspects' considerations for confession before the interrogation. Results indicate that sociodemographic and criminological factors do not impact incarcerated individuals’ self-reported confessions. Factors that predict a suspect’s self-reported confessions include signing away of Miranda rights and previous intentions to confess wrongdoing. Factors that predict a suspect’s self-reported denials included police use of physical restraints, perceptions of little evidence against them, and previous intentions to deny wrongdoing. Undecided suspects are just as likely to confess or deny allegations against them. In conclusion, the authors note that suspects largely follow their initial intentions to confess or deny allegations. This report complements previous work in the field and can be used to inform police interrogation training and practice.

Source: Crime and Justice Research Alliance

EDUCATION

Nationally, students with some college credits but no degree earn about $4,000 less annually and are more likely to be unemployed than holders of associate’s degrees. The Re-Enrollment and Completion Team (REACT) intervention is an evidence-based approach designed to help stopped-out students return to community college and eventually complete their associate's degrees. The study team is implementing a randomized controlled trial at four community colleges in Florida (Florida SouthWestern State College, Hillsborough College, Northwest Florida State College, and Palm Beach State College) to estimate the effects of REACT. Initial findings include that those who receive the REACT intervention are much more likely to re-enroll, with 24% of the program group re-enrolled, compared with 15% of the control group. Colleges may therefore see REACT as a way to increase enrollment. State governments, too, may view REACT as a promising workforce-development strategy to meet statewide degree-attainment goals and the demands of a changing economy. Initial findings indicate that the program is effective for all groups examined, but especially effective for Black students, women, and students who are 24 and older.

Source: MDRC

College remains one of the best pathways to intergenerational mobility, yet graduates from low-income families still earn lower average post-college incomes than higher-income peers. This study examines administrative and earnings data on students who graduated from a multi-campus public college system from 2010 through 2017, finding that average earnings for low socioeconomic status graduates (those receiving Pell Grants) are 12% to 16% lower than for high socioeconomic status graduates in the first, fifth, and tenth year after graduation. More specifically, fifth year earnings are $4,900 lower after controlling for the specific college attended, GPA, test scores, and major field of study. Per the authors, this earnings gap is primarily driven by graduates’ starting salaries. The authors explain that low socioeconomic status graduates were less likely to have connected with their first employer before or at graduation, and those without jobs upon graduation were more likely to find jobs quickly, a pattern consistent with greater financial pressure that may have led them to accept lower starting salaries. The authors note that policymakers and institutional leaders may want to experiment with supplemental financial and non-financial supports to help low socioeconomic status graduates start their search earlier, broaden their networks, and weather the financially stressful period immediately after graduation.

Source: Community College Research Center

Virtually all K-12 students in the country now attend a school with some sort of cellphone restriction. The authors investigate how teens experience cellphone bans using data from a nationally representative sample (n=528) of teens. Findings include that phone use in schools increased over the 2025-26 school year, with 44% of respondents indicating that teachers became less strict about enforcing restrictions over time. Although usage increased, the increase at schools with less-strict policies was nearly double the increase at schools with stricter policies (e.g., bell-to-bell restrictions). When asked how phone rules affected them, teens reported mostly negative or no impacts of restrictions on their overall school experiences and well-being at the beginning of the year, with nearly half reporting a negative impact on happiness and few reporting positive impacts. However, opinions had shifted by the end of the year, with the proportion of teens who felt their school’s phone rules were making them unhappy dropping from 48% in October to 27% in May. In the same period, the proportion of teens who reported their school’s phone policy had no impact on them increased from 56% to 63%, and the proportion who reported a negative impact decreased from 24% to 17%.

Source: Brookings

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

America’s surface transportation system of roads, rails, sidewalks, and trails is the workhorse of the economy and makes sure the stores can stay stocked and packages reach the front door. Simply put, surface transportation keeps the economy functional. Surface transportation infrastructure takes decades to realize its full effects. The back-end work to draft plans and predevelop projects takes considerable time. Affordability is a major concern among the public, and transportation is getting considerably more expensive. For years, transportation has been the second–highest category of household spending (17% in 2024), trailing only housing but ahead of food, health care, and education. One explanatory factor is the cost to own and maintain a vehicle, which surpassed $9,500 in 2024, and where used vehicle prices and maintenance costs are rising fast. Legislatures in Minnesota and Washington are testing new ways to share revenues with localities for surface transportation infrastructure. Building on work led by the National Association of City Transportation Officials and their members, more states are adopting context-sensitive roadway design standards. States such as Florida are using new competitive grant programs to incentivize more regional coordination.

Source: Brookings

Consumer sentiment, or consumers’ attitudes toward their current financial well-being and their future economic expectations, influences household behavior in important ways, yet there is little causal evidence on whether government policies themselves shape these perceptions. This study examines the effect of the expiration of the expanded 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC), which abruptly reduced household income for millions of families. Findings include that each $1,000 in lost CTC benefits reduces household sentiment by 1.7 points (or about 2.4%), with the largest effects among lower-income families with multiple children. Negative effects on household sentiment persist nearly two years after expiration and extend to households’ assessment of the broader overall economy and government policy. The authors conclude that fiscal policy impacts perceived economic well-being beyond immediate income effects, or, in other words, that sentiment responses to policy changes do not simply track with household income. They note that fiscal policy effects on sentiment may have implications for household economic activity, political attitudes, and voting behavior.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

Americans have become increasingly worried about artificial intelligence (AI) over the years, with young adults’ concern continuing to grow. In a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults (n=4,069) conducted in June 2026, 52% of respondents said they are more concerned than excited about the increased use of AI in daily life, up from 37% in 2021. Concern about AI is up among younger and older respondents, but for the first time since 2021, the majority of respondents under 30 (55%) now say they’re more concerned than excited about AI. In contrast, about one-in-ten respondents under 30 say they’re more excited than concerned about AI, and roughly one third are equally concerned and excited. Per the study, excitement about AI has dropped among all age groups since 2021. Other findings include that 71% of adults think AI will lead to fewer jobs in the U.S. over the next two decades, up from 64% in 2024. Few (5%) say AI will lead to more jobs. Across most age groups, it has become more common for respondents to foresee job loss from AI. For example, 73% of adults under 30 now say AI will lead to fewer jobs, up from 61% in 2024.

Source: Pew Research Center

HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Adequate protein intake is essential for overall health. The 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans emphasize prioritizing high-quality, nutrient-dense protein foods, including eggs, poultry, seafood, and meat. This report presents estimates on the mean percentage of total calories from protein and the mean percentage of total protein consumed from the top five food sources on a given day among youth and adults in the United States during August 2021–August 2023. Key findings include that youth consumed 13.9% of total calories from protein on a given day, and consumption was higher among adolescents ages 12–19 (14.3%) than children ages 6–11 (13.3%). Overall, adults consumed 15.5% of total calories from protein, and consumption was lower among adults age 60 and older (15.1%) than adults ages 20−39 (15.6%) and 40−59 (15.7%). Sandwiches (which include burgers) and poultry were the top two contributors of protein intake among youth and adults, with some differences by age group. The percentage of calories consumed from protein decreased from 14.8% in 2013−2014 to 13.9% in August 2021−August 2023 among youth and from 16.1% to 15.5% among adults.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

For 30 years, relative caregivers have been allowed to receive subsidies through the federal Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF), but states differ substantially in how they incorporate relative care into their subsidy systems. This brief examines how states are implementing relative care within CCDF and highlights the policy and administrative considerations involved in supporting this child care option. Findings include that in an average month in 2023, 1.6 million children received CCDF subsidies nationally, with 93,000 of these children (5.8%) receiving CCDF-funded care from relatives. This national figure masks considerable variation across states, however, as 12 states, including Florida, reported no children receiving CCDF-funded relative care while nearly one quarter of CCDF-subsidized children in seven states were reported as receiving care from relatives. Per the authors, expanding relative care requires more than policy flexibility. Successfully enrolling, paying, monitoring, and supporting relative caregivers depends on states allocating funding, setting up and staffing appropriate administrative systems, offering provider supports, and establishing oversight mechanisms to ensure funding accountability. They note that states seeking to expand family choice through relative care can draw on existing examples from across the country, recognizing that successful implementation requires balancing accessibility, accountability, and administrative capacity.

Source: Urban Institute

Using data on the universe of state-level public-health laws and regulations passed by state legislatures between 1911 and 1928, this study examines whether these laws, taken together, account for a meaningful decline in mortality. Findings include that public-health laws reduced mortality during the study period, whereas other laws and repeals of public-health laws did not. Legislatures were most effective at reducing deaths from waterborne and drainage-related diseases, half as effective for airborne communicable diseases, and one-fifth as effective for noncommunicable diseases. The authors use text analysis to classify the laws into twenty topics, finding that laws targeting particular causes of death produced larger mortality declines for those causes. They estimate that the universe of public-health laws accounts for approximately two-thirds of the mortality decline during the study period.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research


N O T E :
An online subscription may be required to view some items.




CONNECT WITH US
web logo LN logo email logo

EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES

GOVERNMENT PROGRAM SUMMARIES (GPS)
Government Program Summaries (GPS) provides descriptive information on Florida state agencies, including funding, contact information, and references to other sources of agency information.

POLICYNOTES
A publication of the Florida Legislature's Office of Program Policy Analysis and Government Accountability. Click here to subscribe to this publication. As a joint legislative unit, OPPAGA works with both the Senate and the House of Representatives to conduct objective research, program reviews, and contract management for the Florida Legislature.

PolicyNotes, published every Friday, features reports, articles, and websites with timely information of interest to policymakers and researchers. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed by third parties as reported in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect OPPAGA's views.

Permission is granted to make and distribute verbatim copies of PolicyNotes provided that this section is preserved on all copies.